基隆河流域洪災防治效益之評估：特徵價格法之應用

Benefits of Flood Control in Keelung River Basin-Hedonic Price Approach

10.6128/CP.35.1.29

楊重信(Chung-Hsin Yang)；王安民(An-Ming Wang)

洪災防治效益 ； 特徵價格 ； Box-Cox轉換 ； 益本比 ； Flood control benefits ； Hedonic price ； Box-Cox transformation ； Benefit-cost ratio

都市與計劃

35卷1期（2008 / 03 / 01）

29 - 47

繁體中文

本研究首先將淹水超越機率引入特徵價格模式中，估計基隆河流域淹水超越機率對房價之影響；然後，利用特徵價格模式估計當防洪計畫完成、淹水超越機率降低至一定水準時之效益。本研究之主要發現包括：(1)房價水準顯著地受到屋齡、坪數、衛浴數、與CBD之距離、與捷運車站之距離、公園面積、以及淹水超越機率之影響；其受影響之情況為：屋齡愈高者，其房價愈低；坪數愈大、衛浴間數愈多、800公尺半徑內之公園面積愈大者，其房價愈高；離CBD、捷運車站愈遠者，其房價愈低；淹水超越機率愈高之地區，其房價愈低（淹水超越機率每高1%，房價平均下跌0.023%）。(2)若基隆河整治計畫完成後，基隆河流域淹水地區之淹水超越機率皆可降至與其他地區一樣之0.5%水準時，則此洪災防治之總效益將可達到2842.4361億元；與基隆河整治成本725.63億元相較，求得基隆河整體治理計畫之益本比高達3.92，顯示基隆河整體整治計畫甚值得執行。

This study adopts a hedonic approach to estimate the effects of flooding on housing prices in the Keelung River Basin. An estimated hedonic price equation is used to calculate the increases in housing prices as the exceedance probability of flooding decreases. The major findings of this study are: (1). Housing price is significantly affected by the housing age, housing size, number of bathrooms, distance to CBD, distance to the nearest MRT station, size of nearby parks, and the exceedance probability of flooding. Specifically, it is found that housing price is positively affected by the size of the house, the number of bathrooms, and the size of nearby parks, while it is negatively affected by the age of house, the distance to CBD, the distance to the nearest MRT station, and the exceedance probability of flooding (housing price decreases by 0.023% for_every 1% decrease in exceedance probability of flooding). (2).The estimated benefits of controlling the exceedance probability of flooding to 0.5% throughout the Keelung River Basin is NT$ 284.2436 billion. Compared with the estimated cost of the Keelung River Flooding Control Project (KRFCP), i.e., NT$ 72.563 billion, the benefit-cost ratio of KRFCP is 3.92. The proposed flood control project is therefore highly feasible.

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