全球氣候變遷下社經代謝作用與土地利用變遷之空間型態：SEMLUC模型之應用

Global Climate Change Impacts on the Spatial Pattern of Socio-economic Metabolism and Land Use Change: SEMLUC Model Applications

10.6128/CP.36.4.445

李俊霖(Chun-Lin Lee)

全球氣候變遷 ； 社經代謝作用 ； 土地利用變遷 ； 空間系統模擬 ； 情境模擬 ； Global climate change ； Socio-economic metabolism ； Land use change ； SEMLUC ； Spatial system simulation ； Scenario simulation

都市與計劃

36卷4期（2009 / 12 / 01）

445 - 472

繁體中文

在全球環境變遷人文面向研究(IHDP)的提倡下，土地利用變遷與社經代謝作用（社會經濟系統的資源消耗、資產累積與廢棄物排放）的研究逐漸受到重視，然而，過去僅止於土地利用變遷與社經代謝作用巨觀(macroscopic)指標與統計量的分析。在LUCC的推動與GIS技術的進步下，各種空間模擬技術快速的發展，而台北都會區SEMLUC (Socio-Economic Metabolism and Land-Use Change)模型即以空間系統模擬(spatial system simulation)方法爲基礎被發展出來，用來探討社經代謝作用與土地利用變遷之空間型態。本研究主要以IPCC SRES (Special Reports: Emission Scenarios)情境族中之A2與B2氣候變遷情境，配合地方政策情境（N：消極情境；P：積極情境）的設定，以台北都會區SEMLUC模型進行全球氣候變遷對於社經代謝作用與土地利用變遷空間型態衝擊之分析。其中，主要發現在極端降雨趨勢與地表氣溫上升的影響下，台北都會區對於外來不可再生能量的依賴顯著提升，而自然資產的空間分佈呈現出往高海拔地區集中的空間型態，坡地農業則逐漸消失，此外，廢棄物的產生亦有明顯的增加。在未考量海平面上升的狀況下，氣候變遷所帶來的極端降雨與地表溫度上升對於土地利用變遷的影響並不顯著，主要在於部分山坡地上之農業資產與農地被都市土地取代而消失。然而，氣候變遷情境模擬結果亦顯示，若能以各種節能政策、替代能源技術、農業耕種與灌溉技術以及資源回收等措施，來積極的因應氣候變遷所帶來的衝擊，上述的氣候變遷衝擊將可減緩。

The International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP) encourages researchers to explore the connections between socio-economic metabolism and land use change. However, current research uses indices or statistical methods to analyze the macroscopic how socio-economic metabolism and land use change are related. A spatial dynamic approach to investigate this relationship is still needed. A Socio-Economic Metabolism and Land Use Change (SEMLUC) model, which is based on spatial system simulation, for Metropolitan Taipei is developed and to explore the spatial patterns of socio-economic metabolism and land use change. To analyze the impact of climate change on spatial patterns of socio-economic metabolism and land use change, this study adopts the SEMLUC model to simulate spatial patterns for Metropolitan Taipei based on A2 and B2 scenarios in Special Reports: Emission Scenarios (SRES) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and local policy scenarios N (negative) and P (positive). Simulation results demonstrate that dependence on non-renewable energy by Metropolitan Taipei has increased markedly in response to increasing temperature. Furthermore, natural assets are concentrated in mountainous areas and agricultural assets disappear from mountainsides during precipitation. Additionally, waste emissions are increasing in urban areas. Without considering the rise in sea level, climate change impacts on land use change are insignificant, except that some agricultural areas are urbanized. Furthermore, scenario simulations indicate that if energy policies, agricultural cultivation and resource recycling systems can be implemented, the impact of climate change on the socio-economic metabolism will be reduced.

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