都市街頭搶奪犯罪熱點分析：日常活動理論之觀點

Analysis of Hot Spots for Urban Bag Snatching Crime-Perspectives from Routine Activity Theory

10.6128/CP.39.1.71

張淑貞(Shu-Chen Chang)；李素馨(Su-Hsin Lee)

空間自相關 ； 群聚分析 ； 搶劫 ； 道路便捷度 ； Spatial autocorrelation ； Cluster analysis ； Robbery ； Road accessibility

都市與計劃

39卷1期（2012 / 03 / 01）

71 - 94

繁體中文

台灣都市街頭搶奪犯罪問題日益嚴重，已造成民眾外出時的安全隱憂。雖然相關研究者提出犯罪不是均勻的分布在空間上，但在實務與研究上如何界定犯罪空間群聚現象卻是一項困難的挑戰。因此，本研究以全域型空間自相關之Moran's I值來證明犯罪是否有空間群聚現象，地域型空間自相關以LISA來定義犯罪顯著熱點及冷點分布，並以二項式邏輯斯特迴歸分析來探討社會及空間等因子對街頭搶奪犯罪熱點分布之影響。本研究以台中市西屯區2001－2005年之街頭搶奪犯罪為實證研究對象，共計1,272件。研究結果發現：（1）街頭搶奪犯罪有空間群聚現象，且犯罪空間群聚程度與分布與商業活動有關聯，白天顯著熱點集中在住商混合區，晚上顯著熱點集中在夜市商圈。（2）銀行密度和批發零售業密度對白天街頭搶奪犯罪熱點分布有顯著正向影響力，餐飲業密度、娛樂業密度和工業密度對夜晚街頭搶奪犯罪熱點分布有顯著正向影響力，道路便捷度對白天和夜晚街頭搶奪犯罪熱點分布有顯著正向影響力。

Bag snatching on city streets has become a growing problem in cities in Taiwan, creating a serious public safety issue. Although, numerous studies have concluded that crime is not evenly distributed across space, identifying spatial crime clusterings remains challenging for researchers and police officials. This study analyzes the spatial dimensions of bag snatching crimes, and utilizes Moran's I of ”global spatial autocorrelation” to demonstrate whether such crimes occur in clusters. LISA, ”local spatial autocorrelation” is applied to define significant hot and cold spots bag snatching crimes. Social and spatial effects on the distribution of hot spots were also analyzed via dichotomous logistic regression analysis. This study analyzed 1,272 street snatches recorded from 2001 to 2005 in Situn District of Taichung City. The results demonstrated that: (1) spatial clustering existed and its degree and time distribution were related to specific types of daily businesses activities. The main significant hot spots for bag snatching were distributed in mixed residential and business areas in the daytime and in night-market business areas at nighttime. (2) Density of banks and retailers increased clusters of bag snatching crimes in the daytime, while entertainment businesses, restaurants and industry were positively correlated with such crimes at nighttime. Road accessibility was positively correlated with the incidence of bag snatching in both the daytime and the nighttime.

1. 劉君雅、鄧志松、唐代彪(2009)。臺灣低生育率之空間分析。人口學刊，39，119-155。
   連結：
2. Plint, T. (1851). Crime in England, London: Charles Gilpin.
3. Lottier, S. (1938a). Distribution of criminal offenses in sectional regions, Journal of Criminal Law, Crominology and Police Science, 29(3): 329-344.
4. Anselin, L. (2005). Exploring spatial data with GeoDa: A workbook, Spatial Analysis. Laboratory, Department of Geography University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign Urbana, IL 61801, https://www.geoda.uiuc.edu/default.php, (Dec. 5, 2006).
5. Levine, N. (2004). CrimeStat III: A spatial statistics program for the analysis of crime incident locations, The National Institute of Justice, http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/NACJD/crimestat.html,(Dec. 7, 2006).
6. 蘇智峰（2001b），「Space Syntax 隨堂講義」，台中：逢甲大學。
7. Lottier, S. (1938b). Distribution of criminal offenses in metropolitan regions, Journal of Criminal Law, Crominology and Police Science, 29(1): 37-50.
8. 內政部警政署（2005），「中華民國．台閩地區警政統計年報」，台北：內政部警政署
9. Guerry, A. M. (1833). Essai sur la Statistique Morale de la France, Paris: Crochard.
10. Quetelet, M. A. (1842). A Treatise on Man and The Development of His Faculties, Ediburgh: Willian and Robert Chambers.
11. 內政部警政署（1994），「中華民國．台閩地區警政統計年報」，台北：內政部警政署。
12. Anselin, L.(1995).Local indicators of spatial association-LISA.Geographical Analysis,27(2),93-115.
13. Anselin, L.,Kim, Y. W.,Syabri, I.(2004).Web-based analytical tools for the exploration of spatial data.Journal of Geographical Systems,6(2),197-218.
14. Anselin, L.,Syabri, I.,Kho, Y.(2006).GeoDa: An introduction to spatial data analysis.Geographical Analysis,38(1),5-22.
15. Appiahene-Gyamfi, J.(1998).Violent crime in Ghana: The case of robbery.Journal of Criminal Justice,26(5),409-424.
16. Bafna, S.(2003).Space syntax: A brief introduction to its logic and analytical techniques.Environment and Behavior,35(1),17-29.
17. Bailey, T. C.,Gatrell, A. C.(1995).Interactive Spatial Data Analysis.New York:John Wiley and Sons Press.
18. Bellamy, L. C.(1996).Situational crime prevention and convenience store robbery.Security Journal,7(1),41-52.
19. Brantingham, P. J.,Brantingham, P. L.(1981).Environmental Criminology, Prospect Heights.Beverly Hills:Sage Publications.
20. Can, A.(1990).The measurement of neighborhood dynamics in urban house price.Economic Geography,66(3),254-272.
21. Chakravorty, S.(1995).Identifying crime clusters: The spatial principles.Middle States Geographer,28,53-58.
22. Cliff, A.,Ord, J. K.(1973).Spatial Autocorrelation.London:Pion.
23. Cohen, L. E.,Felson, M.(1979).Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach.American Sociological Review,44,588-605.
24. Cornish, D.,Clarke, R. V.(1986).The Reasoning Criminal: Rational. Choice Perspectives on Offending.New York:Spring-Verlag.
25. Darmofal, D.(2006).The political geography of macro-level turnout in American political development.Political Geography,25(2),123-150.
26. Eck, J.(ed.),Weisburd, D.(ed.)(1995).Crime Prevention Studies: Vol. 4. Crime and Place.New York:Criminal Justice Press.
27. Eck, J.,Weisburd, D.(1995).Crime and Place.New York:Criminal Justice Press.
28. Felson, M.(2002).Crime and Everyday Life.Thousand Oaks:Pine Forge Press.
29. Felson, M.,Clarke, R. V.(1998).Opportunity Makes the Thief.London:Home Office.
30. Goldsmith, V.(ed.),McGuire, P. G.(ed.),Mollenkopf, J. H.(ed.),Ross, T. A.(ed.)(2000).Analyzing Crime Patterns: Frontiers of Practice.Thousand Oaks:Sage Publications.
31. Gonzales, A. R.(ed.),Schofield, R. B.(ed.),Hart, S. V.(ed.)(2005).Mapping Crime: Understanding Hot Spots.Washington, DC:Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs.
32. Griffith, D. A.(1992).What is autocrrelation? Reflections on the past 25 years of spatial statistics.L' Espace Geographique,21,265-280.
33. Harries, K. D.(1971).The geography of American crime 1968.Journal of Geography,70(4),204-213.
34. Hillier, B.(2004).Can streets be made safe?.Urban Design,9,31-45.
35. Hillier, B.,Hanson, J.,Graham, H.(1987).Ideas are in things, an application of the space syntax method to discovering house genotypes.Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design,14(4),363-385.
36. Jacobs, J.(1961).The Death and Life of Great American Cities.New York:McGraw-Hill.
37. Levine, N.,Wachs, M.,Shirazi, E.(1986).Crime at bus stops: A study of environmental factors.Journal of Architectural and Planning Research,3(4),339-361.
38. MacKenzie, D. L.(ed.),Uchida, C.(ed.)(1994).Drugs and Crime: Evaluation Public Policy Initiatives.Newbury Park:Sage.
39. Maltz, M. D.,Andrew, C.,Gordon, A. C.,Friedman, W.(1989).Mapping Crime in Its Community Detting: Event Geography Analysis.New York:Springer-Verlag.
40. Mayhew, H.(1968).London Labour and the London Poor: Vol. IV. Those That Will Not Work, Comprising Prostitutes, Thieves and Swindlers and Beggars.New York:Dover.
41. Michael, F. G.(ed.),Donald, G. J.(ed.)(2004).Spatially Integrated Social Science.Oxford:Oxford University Press.
42. Mitchell, A.(2005).The ESRI Guide to GIS Analysis: Vol. 2. Spatial Measurements and Statistics.Redlands:ESRI Press.
43. Moran, P. A. P.(1950).Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena.Biometrika,37(1-2),17-23.
44. Nelson, A. L.,Bromley, R. D. F.,Thomas C, J.(2001).Identifying micro-spatial and temporal patters of violent crime and disorder in the British city centre.Applied Geography,21(3),249-274.
45. Nicholas, S.,Kershaw, C.,Walker, A.(2007).Crime in England and Wales 2006/07.London:Home Office.
46. Ook-Kim, Y.,Penn, A.(2004).Linking the spatial syntax of cognitive maps to the spatial syntax of the environment.Environment and Behavior,36(4),483-504.
47. Ord, J. K.,Getis, A.(1995).Local spatial autocorrelation statistics: Distributional issues and an application.Geographical Analysis,27(4),286-306.
48. Puech, F.(2004).Etudes et DocumentsEtudes et Documents,CERDI.
49. Roncek, D.(1981).Danderous place: Crime and residential environment.Social Forces,60(1),74-96.
50. Sawada, M.(2004).Global Spatial Autocorrelation Indices - Moran's I, Geary's C and the General Cross-Product Statistic.Ottawa:University of Ottawa.
51. Schmid, C.(1960).Urban crime areas, Part 2.American Sociological Review,25(5),655-678.
52. Shannon, L. W.(1954).The spatial distribution of criminal offenses by states.Journal of Criminal Law, Crominology and Police Science,45(3),264-273.
53. Sherman, L.,Gartin, P.,Buerger, M.(1989).Hot spots of predatory crime: Routine activities and the criminology of place.Criminology,24(4),667-703.
54. Shu, C. F.(2000).Housing layout and crime vulnerability.Urban Design,5,177-188.
55. Sokal, R. R.,Oden, N. L.(1978).Spatial autocorrelation in biolog 2: Some biological implications and four applications of evolutionary and ecological interest.Biological Journal of the Linnean Society,10(2),229-249.
56. Sokal, R. R.,Oden, N. L.(1978).Spatial autocrrelation in biology 1: Methodolog.Biological Journal of the Linnean Society,10(2),199-228.
57. Southworth, J.,Munroe, D.,Nagendra, H.(2004).Land cover change and landscape fragmentation-comparing the utility of continuous and discrete analyses for a western Hoduras region.Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment,101(2-3),185-205.
58. Taylor, R.,Gottfredson, S.,Brower, S.(1984).Block crime and fear: Defensible space, local social ties, and territorial functioning.Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency,21(4),303-331.
59. Weisburd, D.,Green, L.(1995).Policing drug hot spots: The Jersey City drug market analysis experiment.Justice Quarterly,12(4),711-735.
60. Wilcox, S.(1973).The Prevention and Control of Robbery: Vol. 3. The Geography of Robbery.Davis:Center on Administration of Criminal Justice, University of California at Davis.
61. 朱健銘(2000)。碩士論文(碩士論文)。國立台灣大學地理學系。
62. 杜建人(1997)。城市犯罪研究。台北:五南圖書出版公司。
63. 孟維德(2006)。治安維護與城市治理。安全城市，美麗台中—台中市治安論壇，台中:
64. 林進發(2005)。碩士論文(碩士論文)。國立彰化師範大學地理學系。
65. 張秀玲(2000)。碩士論文(碩士論文)。國立成功大學都市計畫學系。
66. 張淑貞、李素馨(2003)。街道搶奪犯罪情境之研究—以台中市西屯區為例。中華民國建築學會第十五屆建築研究成果發表會論文集，台中:
67. 陳慈仁(2001)。碩士論文(碩士論文)。國立台灣大學建築與城鄉研究所。
68. 湯巧君(2007)。碩士論文(碩士論文)。國立高雄師範大學地理學系。
69. 楊士霆(2001)。碩士論文(碩士論文)。國立屏東科技大學工業管理系。
70. 葉坤福(2006)。改善台中市治安具體策略作為。安全城市，美麗台中－台中市治安論壇，台中:
71. 鄒克萬(2000)。區域人口分布之時空分析。土地科學學報，1，33-50。
72. 劉擇昌、吳伯蒝(2008)。犯罪製圖（Crime Mapping）與空間分析（Spatial Analysis）軟體運用於犯罪預防工作之探究－以GeoDa 0.9.5-1（beta）為例。中央警察大學警學叢刊，39(1)，161-196。
73. 蔡德輝、楊士隆(2006)。,台中:台中市警察局。
74. 鄧志松(2010)。一胎化政策與人口結構失衡：中國GIS經社指標資料庫應用實例。地理資訊系統，4(3)，32-41。
75. 賴至瑜、張平吾、張康聰(2005)。台北市住宅普通竊盜犯罪熱點及其社經人文環境分析之研究。中央警察大學犯罪防治學報，6，29-54。
76. 謝文彥(2004)。街頭搶奪犯罪問題研究PG9308-00001-093301010200C1006。桃園:國立中央警察大學。
77. 謝文彥(2006)。街頭搶奪犯罪動機與決意歷程之研究。中央警察大學警學叢刊，36(5)，93-122。
78. 謝純瑩、周國屏(2002)。應用空間自相關分析人口老化時空變遷之研究。人口學刊，25，91-119。
79. 蘇智鋒(2001)。空間型構基因導論：SPACE SYNTAX（空間型構法則）之運用。第五屆建築生產及管理技術研討會，台中:

1. 白仁德(2015)。歷年來高速公路系統沿線地區人口及產業空間分布變遷之研究。臺灣土地研究，18(2)，21-46。
2. 潘定均、陳建樺、李俞麟(2018)。空間計量模式應用於臺北市運動中心之經營管理。大專體育，144，25-35。
3. 張淑貞,何曉萍(2019)。大學校園空間組構型態與不安全空間分布之關連性研究。造園景觀學報，23(2)，25-50。
4. 張淑貞、李素馨、何曉萍(2014)。由空間型構法則評估國小校園潛在危險角落。建築學報，88，155-174。
5. 鄭雅云,汪志忠(2019)。應用空間迴歸分析臺中市長選舉投票率的空間效應。中國統計學報，57(2)，158-177。