醫療保健支出成長因素之探討－時間序列分析與門檻模型的應用

Determinants of National Health Care Expenditure: A Time Series and Threshold Model Approach

10.29765/TEI.200307.0003

陳世能(Shih-Neng Chen)；邱雅苓(Ya-Ling Chiou)

醫療支出 ； 時間序列 ； 單根檢定 ； 共整合檢定 ； 門檻模型 ； health expenditure ； time series ； unit root test ； co-integration test ； threshold model

經濟研究

39卷2期（2003 / 07 / 01）

197 - 240

繁體中文

本文利用台灣1954至1999年國民醫療保健資料，以時間序列分析與門檻模型探討長期醫療支出成長的因素。實證結果顯示，影響醫療支出成長的因素包括人均GDP、被保險人口比例，每萬人口醫師數、每萬人口病床數及失業率。並將這些因素分別作為門檻變數，探討醫療支出成長之結構性變化。結果顯示，GDP為決定醫療保健支出的重要因素，但健康保險的存在減弱GDP對醫療支出之影響，甚至比其影響更重要。此外失業率的提高，亦使醫療保健支出顯著成長。

This paper uses national health expenditure data in Taiwan from 1954 to 1999 to construct time series and threshold models and to explore the determinants of the growth of health expenditure. Results indicate that, per capita GDP, the ratio of insured, doctors and beds per capita, and unemployment rate, are all key factors affecting the growth of health expenditure. We also uses per capita GDP, the ratio of insured, doctors and beds per capita, and unemployment rate to be the threshold variables, respectively, to test the structure changes of the health expenditure. Results reveal that per capita GDP is the most important factor determining health expenditures, but the existence of medical insurance may mitigate this effect. Finally, the growth of unemployment rate increases medical care expenditure.

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