預料到的貨幣政策和動態調整：內生成長模型

Anticipated Monetary Policy and Transitional Dynamics in an Endogenous Growth Model

10.29765/TEI.200801.0002

阮俊英(Chun-Ying Juan)；胡士文(Shih-Wen Hu)

內生成長 ； 貨幣融通 ； 政策宣告 ； Endogenous Growth ； Money Financing ； Policy Announcement

經濟研究

44卷1期（2008 / 01 / 31）

31 - 66

繁體中文

本文乃延申Chang and Lai (2000)模型，加入Greiner (1998)之政府移轉性支付設定的概念，將Chang and Lai (2000)內生的移轉性支付轉爲外生，並引進了政府支出內生化，據此，探討預料到的貨幣成長率變動對消費一資本比、實質貨幣一資本比與經濟成長率的影響。本文發現，在長期均衡時，貨幣成長率提高對實質貨幣－資本比有下降之影響，且在相對風險逃避係數等於1之情況下，短期調整路徑呈現多樣化之走勢，甚至可能出現錯向調整，有別於Chang and Lai (2000)之分析結果，然對經濟成長率之長期均衡結果則與Chang and Lai (2000)一致。

This paper incorporates the salient feature of Greiner's (1998) specification, that is, the specific fraction of government's tax revenues is devoted to transfer payment, into the Chang and Lai (2000) monetary endogenous growth model. Based on such a revised model, we examine the effect of anticipated change in the money growth rate on the consumption-capital ratio, the real cash balances-physical capital ratio, and the economic growth rate. It is found that in the long-run equilibrium, a rise in the money growth rates depresses the real cash balances-physical capital ratio. Moreover, when the coefficient of relative risk aversion is equal to unity, in the intermediate run the adjustment of relevant macro variables exhibits a variety of transitional adjustment patterns, including a misadjustment path. This result runs in contrast with the conclusion proposed by Chang and Lai (2000).

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