資金流動、國際金融整合與經濟成長：東歐、東亞與拉丁美洲新興經濟體的實證分析

Capital Flows, International Financial Integration, and Economic Growth: An Analysis for the Emerging Markets

10.29765/TEI.201007.0003

葉國俊(Kuo-Chun Yeh)；何泰寬(Tai-Kuang Ho)；張李易呈(I-Cheng Chang Lee)

資金流動 ； 國際金融整合 ； 經濟成長 ； 全球經常帳失衡 ； 新興經濟體 ； Capital Flows ； International Financial Integration ； Economic Growth ； Global Imbalances ； Emerging Markets

經濟研究

46卷2期（2010 / 07 / 31）

245 - 284

繁體中文

本文研究目的，在藉由控制特定的經濟、金融和政策特徵變數，檢視東歐、東亞、拉丁美洲三大主要新興市場地區國家的資金流動方向，它對經濟成長的影響，以及近來眾所關切的全球經常帳失衡問題。實證結果顯示，東歐國家所得水準與金融深化程度仍低，但隨著發展程度提升，未來將由資金流入轉爲流出。東亞國家的超額儲蓄、貿易出超與資金流出，被指控爲造成美國巨額經常帳赤字與全球經常帳失衡的主因之一。但若能夠持續金融深化的努力，資金可能回流並使全球經常帳失衡現象得以緩和。至於拉丁美洲國家的總體經濟、金融和政策特徵狀態變數，對於資金流動方向並無決定性影響。但財政與貨幣政策紀律，仍是決定資金流入能否有助於經濟成長的主要關鍵。

By controlling specific financial and policy variables, we look at the relationship among capital flows, global imbalances and economic growth of the emerging economies. The results indicate that the style of the eastern European economies will be from ”downhill” to ”uphill” after their per-capita incomes are over the threshold. The East Asian economies could be from ”uphill” to ”downhill” if they can improve the degrees of financial deepening, and then the global imbalances can be relieved. The capital flows in Latin America do not depend on performance, financial situations and economic policies. However, the discipline of fiscal and monetary policies is still decisive on whether the capital inflows can contribute to economic growth.

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