Zipf法則之驗證：以臺灣地區城市人口分布為例

Zipf's Law and City Size Distributions in Taiwan

林俊宏(Chun-Hung Lin)；鄭美君(Mei-Chun Cheng)；徐慶柏(Ching-Po Hsu)

臺灣人口分布 ； Zipf法則 ； Pareto指數 ； 都市規模 ； Population Distributions in Taiwan ； Zipf's Law ； Pareto Exponent ； City Size Distribution

經濟研究

50卷2期（2014 / 07 / 31）

175 - 210

繁體中文

過去研究指出Pareto分配對於都市的規模分配具有良好的解釋力，且透過Pareto指數可衡量人口的集中度。因此本研究將透過臺灣1971年至2010年以人口數衡量的前50大都市，探討臺灣都市規模分配的變化，並檢驗是否符合Zipf法則。研究結果顯示臺灣1971年至2010年皆不符合Zipf法則，且臺灣都市的規模分配較Zipf法則下更為平均。本研究進一步研究發現政府支出、工業化程度、平均每人國內生產毛額、都市化程度及全球化程度為影響臺灣都市規模分配的主要因素。

Several studies have suggested that city size distribution follows a Pareto distribution, and the Pareto exponent can serve as a concise measure of population concentration. We examine Taiwan’s city size distributions over the period of 1971 to 2010, using Zipf's law. The results show that Zipf's law for the size distribution of cities in Taiwan is rejected for each year in the sample period, indicating that city size distribution is more equal than what is predicted by Zipf's law. Moreover, we investigate the explanations of the variation in the Pareto exponent. We find that government expenditure, degree of industrialization, per capita GDP, degree of urbanization, and degree of globalization are the main determinants of the cities' size distribution in Taiwan.

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