總體審慎政策工具與臺灣房價的關係－特定目標信用工具與房市相關租稅工具的影響

On Macroprudential Policies and Housing Prices in Taiwan: The Effects of Targeted Credit Policies and Housing-Related Tax Policies

陳柏如(Chen, Po-Ju)

貸款負擔率 ； 貸款成數 ； 房市相關租稅政策 ； 房價 ； 追蹤資料共整合關係 ； Debt-to-Income Ratio ； Loan-to-Value Ratio ； Housing-Related Tax Policies ； House Prices ； Panel Cointegration

經濟研究

54卷2期（2018 / 07 / 31）

287 - 330

繁體中文

本文研究臺灣主管機關為管理房價而採用之總體審慎工具，包括房市相關租稅政策（即開徵特種貨物及勞務稅和調整房屋稅課徵內容）；以及特定目標信用政策（包括提高房貸風險權數、訂定貸款成數上限與貸款負擔率上限），對臺灣房價表現有何影響。本文研究發現房市相關租稅工具中，提高房屋稅稅率對臺灣實質房價有負面影響，然奢侈稅的施行影響卻不顯著。而特定目標信用工具中，貸款成數及貸款負擔率皆與臺灣實質房價間有顯著正向相關性；但提高房貸風險權數則未對房價造成顯著影響。本文研究發現不同政策工具調控臺灣房價的效果不盡相同，則主管機關在調控房價時若能考量工具效果的差異配套使用，整體效果當可更貼近央行穩定金融的政策目標。

This paper reveals how macroprudential policies, including housing-related tax policies and targeted credit policies, affect housing prices in Taiwan. Policies intended to limit the growth of housing credit are categorized as ＂targeted credit policies,＂ which include the imposition of a maximum DTI ratio and a maximum LTV ratio and increasing risk weights for mortgages, while the tax policies to influence the cost of purchasing or possessing a house are categorized as ＂housing-related tax policies,＂ such as stamp duties and property tax. The results of this paper show that raising the property tax rate has a significant negative effect on housing prices, whereas the imposition of a stamp fee and increasing the risk weights for mortgages do not impact housing prices in Taiwan. Moreover, tightening targeted credit policies, including lowering the maximum LTV and DTI ratios, can cause housing prices in Taiwan to fall. The results provide evidence for differences in the effects of macroprudential policies in Taiwan and suggest that a combination of policies can promote resilience in financial market.

1. 陳柏如(2015)。臺灣房價與貸款成數、房屋使用者成本相關性的檢驗。經濟研究，51(2)，225-256。
   連結：
2. Akaike, H.(1978).A Bayesian Analysis of the Minimum AIC Procedure.Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics,30(1),9-14.
3. Akinci, O.,Olmstead-Rumsey, J.(2015).International Finance Discussion PapersInternational Finance Discussion Papers,未出版
4. Best, M. C.,Kleven, H. J.(2018).Housing Market Responses to Transaction Taxes: Evidence from Notches and Stimulus in the U. K..The Review of Economic Studies,85(1),157-193.
5. Breitung, J.(2000).The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data.Advances in Econometrics,15,161-177.
6. Chudik, A.,Mohaddes, K.,Pesaran, M. H.,Raissi, M.(2013).Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working PaperFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper,未出版
7. Chudik, A.,Pesaran, M. H.(2013).Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working PaperFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper,未出版
8. Cizel, J.,Frost, J.,Houben, A.,Wierts, P.(2016).Effective Macroprudential Policy: Cross-Sector Substitution from Price and Quantity Measures.IMF Working Paper
9. Crowe, C.,Dell'Ariccia, G.,Igan, D.,Rabanal, P.(2011).How to Deal with Real Estate Booms: Lesson from Country Experiences.IMF Working Paper
10. De Hoyos, R. E.,Sarafidis, V.(2006).Testing for Cross-Sectional Dependence in Panel-Data Models.The Stata Journal,6(4),482-496.
11. Duca, J. V.,Muellbauer, J.,Murphy, A.(2011).House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the U.S. Experience.The Economic Journal,121(552),533-552.
12. Hadri, K.(2000).Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panel Data.The Econometrics Journal,3(2),148-161.
13. Im, K. S.,Pesaran, M. H.,Shin, Y.(2003).Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels.Journal of Econometrics,115(1),53-74.
14. Jácome, L. I.,Mitra, S.(2015).LTV and DTI Limits - Going Granular.IMF Working Paper
15. Kelly, R.,McCann, F.,O'Toole, C.(2017).ESRB Working Paper SeriesESRB Working Paper Series,未出版
16. Kuttner, K. N.,Shim, I.(2013).BIS Working PaperBIS Working Paper,未出版
17. Levin, A.,Lin, C. F.,Chu, C. S. J.(2002).Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties.Journal of Econometrics,108(1),1-24.
18. MacKinnon, J. G.(1996).Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests.Journal of Applied Economics,11(6),601-618.
19. McDonald, C.(2015).BIS Working PaperBIS Working Paper,未出版
20. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (2017), OECD Data, https://data.oecd.org/natincome/saving-rate.htm/.
21. Park, S. W.,Bahng, D. W.,Park, Y. W.(2010).Price Run-up in Housing Markets, Access to Bank Lending and House Price in Korea.Journal of Real Estate and Financial Economics,40(3),332-367.
22. Pedroni, P.(1999).Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors.Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,61(1),653-670.
23. Pesaran, M. H.(2004).IZA Discussion PaperIZA Discussion Paper,未出版
24. Pesaran, M. H.,Smith, R.(1995).Estimating Long-Run Relationships from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels.Journal of Econometrics,68(1),79-113.
25. Schwarz, G.(1978).Estimating the Dimension of a Model.The Annals of Statistics,6(2),461-464.
26. Stock, J. H.,Watson, M. W.(2005).NBER Working PaperNBER Working Paper,未出版
27. Uluc, A.,Wieladek, T.(2017).Capital Requirements, Risk Shifting and the Mortgage Market.ECB Working Paper Series
28. Wong, E.,Fong, T.,Li, K. F.,Choi, H.(2011).Hong Kong Monetary Authority Working PaperHong Kong Monetary Authority Working Paper,未出版
29. Wooldridge, J. M.(2013).Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach.South-Western, Cengage Learning.
30. Zhang, L.,Zoli, E.(2014).Leaning Against the Wind: Macroprudential Policy in Asia.IMF Working Paper
31. 中央銀行Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) (2016)，中央銀行對金融機構辦理土地抵押貸款及特定地區購屋貸款業務規定Regulations Governing the Extension of Housing Loans in Specific Areas by Financial Institutions。
32. 內政部 Ministry of the Interior, R.O.C. (Taiwan) (2016)，住宅資訊統計彙報 Housing Statistics。(in Chinese and English)
33. 內政部Ministry of the Interior, R.O.C. (Taiwan) (2016)，不動產資訊平台Real Estate Information Platform，http://pip.moi.gov.tw/V2/E/SCRE0105.aspx。
34. 台北富邦銀行 Taipei Fubon Bank (2017)，可負擔房價試算 House Affordability Dibble-Dabble，https://www.fubon.com/banking/personal/mortgage/affordability/affordability.htm。
35. 行政院主計總處 Direct-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, R.O.C. (Taiwan) (2016)， 家庭收支調查報告Report on the Survey of Family Income and Expenditure。(in Chinese and English)
36. 行政院主計總處 Direct-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, R.O.C. (Taiwan) (2016)， 國民所得統計摘要Statistical Abstract of National Accounts。(in Chinese)
37. 行政院主計總處 Direct-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, R.O.C. (Taiwan) (2017)， 消費者物價總指數Consumer Price Index，https://www.stat.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=35375&CtNode=487&mp=4。
38. 金融監督管理委員會Financial Supervisory Commission, R.O.C. (Taiwan) (2017)，銀行資本適足性及資本等級管理辦法Regulations Governing the Capital Adequacy and Capital Category of Banks。
39. 財政部賦稅署 Taxation Administration, Ministry of Finance, R.O.C. (2016)，特種貨物及勞務稅條例 The Specifically Selected Goods and Services Tax Act。
40. 財政部賦稅署Taxation Administration, Ministry of Finance, R.O.C. (Taiwan) (2016)，房地合一課徵所得稅House and Land Transactions Income Tax Act。
41. 國泰建設公司 Cathay Real Estate Development Co. Ltd. (2016)，國泰房地產指數季報 Cathay Real Estate Price Index Report Quarterly。
42. 臺北市政府稅捐稽徵處 Taipei City Revenue Service (2016)，臺北市房屋稅稅基及稅率變革說明 History of Taipei City Housing Tax Base and Tax Rate，https://tpctax.gov.taipei/Content_List.aspx?n=463589162D3F3F8F。

1. 陳建新,許義忠,何姗嬬(2022)。囤房稅能降低房價所得比嗎？合成控制法的應用。臺灣土地研究，25(2)，121-155。
2. 羅煊,謝一鋒,李得全(2020)。論居住正義及其解方：臺灣與臺北。臺灣土地研究，23(2)，157-193。
3. 楊屯山,張金鶚,林哲群(2022)。總體審慎措施對房地產價量變化的影響。住宅學報，31(2)，29-62。
4. (2022)。建構台灣房價風險值量化評估模型。中央銀行季刊，44(4)，5-44。
5. (2024)。自住與非自住之房屋稅率差異對房價之影響－差異中之差異法的應用。住宅學報，33(2)，27-62。