Assessing China's Role in the Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment

評估中國貿易對美國製造業之就業的影響

Ya-Wen Yu(游雅雯)；David L. Kleykamp(柯大衛)

Manufacturing ； Employment ； Productivity ； China Shock ； Trade Deficit ； 製造業 ； 就業 ； 生產力 ； 中國衝擊 ； 貿易赤字

經濟研究

59卷1期（2023 / 01 / 31）

69 - 110

英文;繁體中文

China's expanding trade in manufactured goods has been suspected of causing a massive fall in manufacturing employment in the U.S. and other advanced economies since the early 2000s. An alternative view to this is that slower demand growth for manufactured goods, relative to services, coupled with relatively strong growth in labor productivity is to blame for the decline. This paper presents China's role in the loss of U.S. manufacturing employment since 1992 by decomposing manufacturing employment growth into growth in manufacturing demand, productivity, and trade. The growth in overall trade is then split into trade between the U.S. and China and trade between the U.S. and the rest of the world excluding China. For value-added output, findings show that China was directly responsible for a loss of 571,000 jobs or 10.1% of total U.S. manufacturing job losses from all sources during 1992-2000, a loss of 1,269,000 jobs or 23.1% of all losses during 2002-2007, and finally a loss of 118,000 jobs or 13.5% of total losses during 2011-2018. In addition, the decomposition indicates that about 75% of job losses in U.S. manufacturing over the periods 1992-2000 and 2002-2007 were due to growth in productivity. By contrast, weak to negative growth in productivity and moderate growth in demand were responsible for a rise in U.S. manufacturing employment of over 1 million jobs during 2011-2018.

自2000年起，中國的擴大貿易被懷疑是導致美國和其他地區製造業就業人數下降的原因。另一種觀點則指出，相對於製造業的需求，對服務業的需求有所上升，加上勞動生產力的持續增長，才是導致製造業就業機會流失的原因。本文旨在計算自1992年起中國貿易對於美國製造業工作機會流失的影響。本文將製造業就業增長分解為製造業需求增長、生產力增長和貿易增長。其次，本文將整體貿易的增長區分為美國和中國之間的貿易，以及美國與中國以外的其他地區之間的貿易。就附加價值的產出而言，本研究發現在1992年至2000年期間，中國直接造成了571,000個工作機會的流失，佔全美所有來源的製造業工作機會流失總數的10.1％。在2002年至2007年期間，中國造成了1,269,000個製造業工作機會流失，佔製造業就業流失總數的23.1％。在2011年至2018年期間，中國則造成了118,000製造業工作機會的流失，佔製造業工作人數流失總數的13.5％。此外，本研究的分解結果發現，在1992年至2000年和2002年至2007年期間，美國製造業中約75％的製造業工作機會的流失是由於生產力增長所導致的。相比之下，在2011年至2018年期間，由於生產力的下降以及市場需求的增加，反而造成美國製造業增加了100萬個以上的工作機會。

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