市場模糊與分析師預測報告對投資者的影響

The Impact of Market Ambiguity and Analyst Forecast Reports on Investors

邱臙珍(Yen-Chen Chiu)；趙雯亭(Wen-Ting Chao)

市場模糊 ； 分析師預測報告 ； Market Ambiguity ； Analyst Forecast Reports

經濟研究

60卷2期（2024 / 07 / 31）

223 - 265

繁體中文;英文

本文主要是探討市場模糊與分析師預測報告對投資人反應的影響，本文更深入區分市場模糊程度與市場模糊變動方向，洞悉當投資者處於市場模糊幅度及方向情境差異之際分析師預測報告對投資者反應的調整過程。實證結果發現，分析師投資建議對投資者的影響扮演重要的角色，而分析師目標價訂定對投資者傳達訊息也具有關鍵性的影響；其次，市場模糊對分析師投資建議具有弱化投資者報酬的調節作用；第三，市場模糊程度低時，分析師投資建議與目標價訂定對投資人之報酬具有正向影響，而在市場模糊程度高時，分析師投資建議、目標價訂定與每股盈餘預測對投資人之報酬有負向影響；第四，市場模糊變動方向對分析師投資建議、目標價訂定與每股盈餘預測與投資者報酬的調節過程亦有具體的影響。

This research examines the influence of market ambiguity and analyst forecast reports on investor reactions. Specifically, we explore both the magnitude and direction of market ambiguity and shed light on how analyst forecasts adapt in response to investor behavior. Findings show the following. 1) Analyst investment recommendations play a crucial role in influencing investors. 2) The setting of analyst target prices conveys essential messages to investors. 3) Market ambiguity has a moderating effect on analyst recommendations, weakening investor reactions. When market ambiguity is low, analyst recommendations and target price positively influence investor reactions. Conversely, under high market ambiguity, analyst recommendations and EPS forecasts have negative effects on investor responses. 4) The direction of market ambiguity significantly influences the adjustment process of analyst recommendations, target price, and EPS forecasts in response to investor behavior.