建商降價動機為何？讓利說VS.銷售說

Motivations behind Property Developers' Price Cut: ＂Profit-Sharing＂ vs. ＂Sales＂

10.6226/NTUMR.202104_31(1).0002

李尚華(Shang-Hua Lee)；張金鶚(Chin-Oh Chang)

不動產市場 ； 不動產開發商 ； 銷售率 ； 議價率 ； real estate market ； property developer ； sales rate ； discount rate

臺大管理論叢

31卷1期（2021 / 04 / 01）

35 - 69

繁體中文;英文

過去國內住宅市場之預售屋及中古屋研究，以價量研究為主，雖有部份國外研究探討中古屋特徵價格與議價能力之關係，但未進一步討論影響新推個案價量背後銷售率與議價率關係。本文主要貢獻係釐清建商在臺北市之新推個案降價動機，及探討其他與新推個案降價相關之因素。根據VECM分析，當銷售率與議價率偏離長期均衡，銷售率之移動速率較議價率快，據此，建商只有在銷售率不佳，財務風險及資金成本增加時才降價（銷售說），而非主動降價提升銷售率（讓利說）；其次，橫斷面資料實證結果，亦確定銷售率與議價率的因果關係，當銷售率提高1%，議價率下降0.022%；最後，我們也發現，影響臺北市新推個案議價率因素，財務規劃重要性高於不動產特徵。本文認為，建商面對市場景氣不佳，新推個案銷售率遲滯時，應主動加大議價空間增加銷售率，以降低財務風險。

Past studies on presale and resale housing in the domestic market have focused on price and housing volume. Few studies have investigated presale housing in foreign housing markets, and some studies have focused on the casual relationship between buyers and sellers of existing housing in relation to real estate characteristics and bargaining power. However, these studies have failed to identify the key factor affecting the price-volume relationship: the relationship between the discount rate and the sales rate. This domestic study contributes to the literature by clarifying the motivations behind property developers' price cut of new construction projects in Taipei City as well as by exploring the particular factors that affect a company's price-cutting when promoting new construction projects. First, the empirical results obtained from the vector error correction model (VECM) analysis of the macro perspective reveal the lead-lag relationship between the sales rate and the discount rate. In an unfavorable real estate market, construction companies typically do not reduce the price of their new construction properties to increase the sales rate (i.e., profit-sharing perspective). Instead, they reduce price only when the cost of capital financing increases and financial risk increases (i.e., sales perspective). Second, we confirm the causal relationship between the discount rate and the sales rate, the cross-sectional data analysis reveals that the discount rate decreases by 0.022% for each 1% rise in the sales rate. Third, we also find that compared with property (product) characteristics, financial planning (financial) characteristics more significantly influence the discount rate of new construction projects in Taipei City. Accordingly, this study proposes strategies of enhancing bargaining opportunities for the property developers to boost the sales rate as well as to avoid financial risks when facing house market downswing and low sales rate of new property projects.

1. 江穎慧, Ying-Hui,朱智揚, Chi-Yang,張金鶚, Chin-Oh(2019)。預售屋大量估價模型之建立。住宅學報，28(2)，17-36。
   連結：
2. 李吉弘, Ji-Homg,楊宗憲, Chung-Hsien(2010)。預售屋與成屋價差比關係之研究－以台北市和台北縣為例。建築與規劃學報，11(1)，1-14。
   連結：
3. 林秋瑾, Chiu-Chin(1996)。穩健性住宅租金模式之探討－異常點之分析。住宅學報，4，51-72。
   連結：
4. 花敬群, Ching-Chun,張金鶚, Chin-Oh(1999)。住宅空間次市場價格比例與市場規模之關係。都市與計劃，26(1)，79-94。
   連結：
5. 邱于修, Yu-Shiou,周美伶, Mei-Ling,張金鶚, Chin-Oh(2013)。購屋者投資機率預測模型之探討。臺大管理論叢，23(2)，1-28。
   連結：
6. 許淑媛, Shu-Yuan,袁淑湄, Shu-Mei,張金鶚, Chin-Oh(2011)。住宅個案價格分散之研究：房價水準、景氣時機與區位條件之分析。都市與計劃，38(4)，403-426。
   連結：
7. 陳妍如, Yen-Ju,張金鶚, Chin-Oh,陳淑美, Shu-Mei(2014)。集合住宅面積混合對社區管理維護影響之線性結構分析。住宅學報，23(2)，77-108。
   連結：
8. 彭建文, Chien-Wen,盧建霖, Chien-Lin(2014)。預售制度下建商銷售時機選擇之實證分析。都市與計劃，41(3)，287-304。
   連結：
9. 彭建文, Chien-Wen,賴鳴美, Ming-Mei(2006)。賣方訂價策略對成交價格之影響分析。住宅學報，15(1)，1-20。
   連結：
10. 黃台心, Tai-Hsin,鍾銘泰, Ming-Tai,楊淳如, Chun-Ju(2015)。運用向量誤差修正模型探討臺灣各產業與股市大盤間資訊傳遞速度。管理與系統，22(1)，1-31。
    連結：
11. 楊宗憲, Chung-Hsien(2003)。住宅市場之產品定位分析—建商推案行為之研究。住宅學報，12(2)，123-139。
    連結：
12. 鄒欣樺, Shin-Hua,張金鶚, Chin-Oh,花敬群, Ching-Chun(2007)。建商不動產表價與議價策略之探討—景氣時機、個案區位、及建商類型分析。管理評論，26(3)，47-69。
    連結：
13. Aaron, A.,Harrison, D. M.,Lane, M. A.,Seiler, M. J.,Seiler, V. L.(2017).Real estate agent target marketing: Are buyers drawn towards particular real estate agents?.Journal of Housing Research,26(1),39-52.
14. Agarwal, S.,He, J.,Sing, T. F.,Song, C. C.(2019).Do real estate agents have information advantages in housing markets?.Journal of Financial Economics,134(3),715-735.
15. Allen, M. T.,Fraser, S. P.,Swaleheen, M.(2016).Differential bargaining power in real estate transaction.Real estate Finance,33(2),89-96.
16. Anglin, P.,Wiebe, R.(2013).Pricing in an illiquid real estate market.Journal of Real Estate Research,35(1),83-102.
17. Basu, S.,Thibodeau, T. G.(1998).Analysis of spatial autocorrelation in house prices.The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,17(1),61-85.
18. Benefield, J. D.,Rutherford, R. C.,Allen, M. T.(2012).The effects of estate sales of residential real estate on price and marketing time.Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,45(4),965-981.
19. Benefield, J. D.,Sirmans, C. S.,Sirmans, G. S.(2019).Observable agent effort and limits to innovation in residential real estate.Journal of Real Estate Research,41(1),1-36.
20. Bourassa, S. C.,Cantoni, E.,Hoesli, M.(2007).Spatial dependence, housing submarkets and house prices prediction.The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,35(2),143-160.
21. Bourassa, S. C.,Cantoni, E.,Hoesli, M.(2010).Predicting house prices with spatial dependence: A comparison of alternative methods.The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,32(2),139-160.
22. Bourassa, S. C.,Hoesli, M.,Peng, V. S.(2003).Do housing submarkets really matter?.Journal of Housing Economics,12(1),12-28.
23. Chatterjee, K.,Samuelson, W.(1983).Bargaining under incomplete information.Operations Research,31(5),835-851.
24. Cheng, P.,Lin, Z.,Liu, Y.(2008).A model of time-on-market and real estate price under sequential search with recall.Real Estate Economics,36(4),813-843.
25. Forgey, F. A.,Rutherford, R. C.,Springer, T. M.(1996).Search and liquidity in single-family housing.Real Estate Economics,24(3),273-292.
26. Goodman, A. C.,Thibodeau, T. G.(1998).Housing market segmentation.Journal of Housing Economics,7(2),121-143.
27. Harding, J. P.,Knight, J. R.,Sirmans, C. F.(2003).Estimating bargaining effects in hedonic models: Evidence from the housing market.Real Estate Economics,31(4),601-622.
28. Hayunga, D. K.,Munneke, H. J.(2019).Examining both sides of the transaction: Bargaining in the housing market.Real Estate Economics
29. İnaltekin, H.,Jarrow, R. A.,Sağlam, M.,Yıldırım, Y.(2011).Housing prices and the optimal time-on-the-market decision.Finance Research Letters,8(4),171-179.
30. Johansen, S.(1988).Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors.Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,12(2-3),231-254.
31. Knight, J. R.,Miceli, T.,Sirmans, C. F.(2000).Repair expenses, selling contracts and house prices.The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,20(3),323-336.
32. Lancaster, K. J.(1966).A new approach to consumer theory.The Journal of Political Economy,74(2),132-157.
33. Larsen, J. E.,Coleman, J. W.(2014).Senior citizen’s bargaining power in residential real estate markets.International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis,7(1),5-17.
34. Marcato, G.,Nanda, A.(2016).Information content and forecasting ability of sentiment indicators: Case of real estate market.The Journal of Real Estate Research Finance and Economics,38(2),165-204.
35. Merlo, A.,Ortalo-Magne, F.(2004).Bargaining over residential real estate: Evidence from England.Journal of Urban Economics,56(2),192-216.
36. Miller, N. G.(1978).Time on the market and selling price.Real Estate Economics,6(2),164-174.
37. Ong, S. E.,Neo, P. H.,Tu, Y.(2008).Foreclosure sales: The effects of price expectations, volatility and equity losses.The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,36(3),265-287.
38. Semeraro, P.,Fregonara, E.(2013).The impact of house characteristics on the bargaining outcome.Journal of European Real Estate Research,6(3),262-278.
39. Shiller, R. J.(2014).Speculative Asset Price.American Economic Review,104(6),1486-1517.
40. Song, S.(1995).Determinants of bargaining outcome in single-family housing transaction: An empirical examination.Urban Studies,32(3),605-614.
41. Turnbull, G. K.,Sirmans, C. F.(1993).Information, search, and house prices.Regional Science and Urban Economics,23(4),545-557.
42. Watkins, C.(1998).Are new entrants to the residential property market informationally disadvantaged?.Journal of Property Research,15(1),57-70.
43. Wilhelmsson, M.(2008).House price depreciation rates and level of maintenance.Journal of Housing Economics,17(1),88-101.
44. Yavas, A.(1994).Economics of brokerage: An overview.Journal of Real Estate Literature,2(2),169-195.
45. Zillante, A.,Read, D. C.,Seiler, M. J.(2019).Using prospect theory to better understand the impact of uncertainty on real estate negotiations.Journal of Real Estate Research,41(1),75-106.
46. 白金安, Chin-Ann,張金鶚, Chin-Oh(1996)。預期景氣變動對預售屋與成屋價格差異影響之研究。中國財務學刊，3(2)，99-114。
47. 李存修, Tsun-Siou,徐慧釗, Hui-Chao(2018)。槓桿型與反向型 ETF 是否影響其標竿指數之期貨市場？—SGX 之 A50 股指期貨之實證。期貨與選擇權學刊，11(2)，1-39。
48. 李春長, Chun-Chang,張金鶚, Chin-Oh(1996)。房地產仲介市場賣方訂價與成交價和銷售期間關係之研究。經濟論文，24(4)，591-616。
49. 林清珮, Ching-Pei,邱顯比, Shean-Bii(1999)。共同基金分類與基金績效持續性之研究。中國財務學刊，7(2)，63-88。
50. 劉玉珍, Yu-Jane,劉維琪, Wen-Chi,謝政能, Jen-Neng(1993)。臺灣股市過度反應之實證研究。臺大管理論叢，4(1)，105-146。