Teenage Participation in Economic Activities: True State Dependence or Heterogeneity?

青少年經濟活動：True State Dependence 或 Heterogeneity

10.29628/AEP.200003.0002

黃芳玫(Fung-Mey Huang)

經濟活動 ； Economic activities ； True state dependence ； Heterogeneity

經濟論文

28卷1期（2000 / 03 / 01）

43 - 66

英文

本文內容主要探討下列兩個主題：(1)一青少年過去曾經參與正常經濟活動（就學或就業）是否會提升他（或她）本期是否參與正常經濟活動的機率？假若是，那此正向關係主要來自於“true state dependence”（亦即過去是否參與正常經濟活動會修正個人行為而使本期亦會參與）或“Heterogeneity”（亦即一些不可觀察的個人因素隨時間不變存在於各期中而使各期行為有相關） (2)當我們控制了state dependence的因素之後，成長期的家庭事件是否仍會影響青少年期的就學或就業行為？為探討此二主題，本文採用美國PSID 21年的長期追蹤調查資料以及動態估計模型，結果發現青少年的正常經濟活動前後期會有高度相關，而此相關來自於true state dependence以及Heterogeneity，而控制了這些因素後，成長期的家庭經濟因素及家庭結構變遷仍然顯著地影響青少年期的正常經濟活動。

In this study, a dynamic model and a twenty-one-year longitudinal data set are used to investigate whether a youth’s past participation in normal economic activities (i.e. schooling or employment) raises his/her probability of being active in normal economic activities in the future. This increase in probability arises either because participation in normal economic activities modifies individual behavior (true state dependence) or because there exist unobserved component correlated over time (heterogeneity). Moreover, we analyze the relationship between the single-parent family structure and parental work patterns and children’s later decisions to participate in normal economic activities. This study finds that being enrolled in school or participating in the labor market, as a form of human capital investment, raises a youth's probability of participating in normal economic activities in the near future even after accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. After controlling for state dependence, we find that poor economic circumstances and stress from family disruption lead to a negative association between a single-parent family structure and the children's later achievements. In contrast, employed parents, who may act as income contributors, job connectors, and role models, are positively associated with children’s later achievements.

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