國際競爭與「躍過關稅」的外人直接投資：市場不確定性的考量

International Competition and Tariff-Jumping FDI with Uncertainty

10.29628/AEP.200312.0003

劉惠玲(Hui-Ling Liu)；邱俊榮(Jiunn-Rong Chiou)

外人直接投資 ； 躍過關稅 ； 不確定性 ； FDI ； Tariff-jumping ； Uncertainty

經濟論文

31卷4期（2003 / 12 / 01）

605 - 636

繁體中文

本文建立了一獨占與雙占Cournot數量競爭模型，討論直接投資地主國市場不確定性對廠商出口或到市場國直接投資決策的影響。本文的主要結論如下：首先，無論在獨占或是雙占的市場結構下，市場不確定性的存在均會降低廠商到地主國直接投資的意願。其次，在雙占的市場結構下，當競爭對手國廠商採取出口的策略時，廠商較有可能直接投資。最後，市場結構的轉變對廠商直接投資可能性的影響方向並不確定。當原先獨占的本國廠商面對外國廠商加入競爭時，若外國廠商採取直接投資的方式，則本國廠商直接投資的可能性降低；若外國廠商採取出口，則本國廠商直接投資的可能性有可能提高或降低。另外，放寬假設將使得部分結論有所改變或擴充。第一，當廠商的風險趨避程度較低的廠商採取出口的方式。第二，當兩國廠商在母國的生產成本不同時，在母國生產成本較低的廠商仍有可能直接投資，而使在母國生產成本較高的廠商採取出口的方式。第三，若直接投資可降低所面對的市場不確定性，則廠商直接投資的意願會提高。第四，若地主國存在潛在進入廠商，則地主國關稅的提高有可能反而使廠商直接投資的可能性降低，此時市場不確定性將使潛在進入廠商更有可能進入市場。第五，需求函數的一般化或競爭型態改成Bertrand價格競爭，並不會改變本文的結論。

We set up an international Cournot duopoly model to analyze the tariff-jumping foreign direct investment (FDI) decision of firms when the host country’s market is in the presence of market uncertainty. The main findings are as follows. Firstly, the incentives for firms to FDI with market uncertainty will decrease in both monopoly and duopoly market structures. Secondly, in the case of duopoly, firms are more likely to undertake FDI when the competing firms undertake the export strategy rather than FDI. Thirdly, the possibility of increasing firms’ incentives to FDI is not clear when market structure has been changed from monopoly to duopoly. Furthermore, the main results may change when there are asymmetric risk attitudes and cost between firms and when there exist potential entrants in the host country. However, the general demand setting and Bertrand price competition will not change our findings.

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