老年經濟保障對生育的排擠效果－台灣的實證分析

The Crowding-Out Effects of Old-Age Economic Security on Fertility: Evidence from Taiwan

林彥伶(Yen-Ling Lin)

生育 ； 老年經濟保障 ； 計數資料 ； 卜瓦松回歸 ； Fertility ； Old-age economic security ； Count data ； Poisson regression

經濟論文

41卷2期（2013 / 06 / 01）

255 - 295

繁體中文

本研究探討造成當前生育率持續下降的原因。過去半世紀以來，多數國家的生育率不斷下降，初期的下降主要歸因工業化社會轉型的結果，包括女性教育程度、薪資與勞動參與率的提升等。然而自二十世紀末期以後，高開發國家的女性社經特徵多已發展至一定程度甚至趨緩，因此，造成當前生育率仍然持續下降應有新的成因。本研究以老年經濟保障政策為研究對象，利用主計處家庭收支調查資料分析老年經濟安全程度對生育決策的影響。實證結果發現，當老年經濟安全愈強化，將愈加排擠生育意願，使生育個數下降。為了不使生育意願與老年經濟政策相互排擠，本文建議應在老年經濟政策與生育政策之間建立相輔機制。

This study investigates the effects of old-age economic security on fertility. The fertility rate has exhibited a downward tendency in many countries following the postwar baby boom. In the early years, the fertility rate decreased due to industrialization. While various related factors, such as women’s education, wage and labor participation, were highly developed in many developed countries by the end of the 20th century, these have been insufficient to explain the current fertility rate tendency. In this research we use multiyear cross-sectional data from the Survey of Family Income and Expenditure to investigate the old-age economic security effects. Our empirical results show that the stronger the old-age economic security is, the more the number of births is crowded out. We suggest that governments should establish a mutual assistance mechanism between the old-age economic security policies and fertility policies.

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