觀光外匯收入波動之總體經濟效果

THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF TOURISM RECEIPT FLUCTUATIONS IN TAIWAN

張俊仁(Juin-Jen Chang)；林雪瑜(Hsieh-Yu Lin)；蘇芷嫺(Chih-Hsien Su)；楊淑珺(Shu-Chun S. Yang)

觀光外匯收入 ； 部門重分配 ； 匯率政策 ； 動態隨機一般均衡模型 ； Tourism receipt ； Sectoral reallocation ； Exchange rate policy ； DSGE model

經濟論文

47卷2期（2019 / 06 / 01）

163 - 207

繁體中文

雖然台灣政府積極發展觀光產業，但在2016下半年卻面臨來台觀光客縮減導致觀光外匯收入大幅下降的困境。本文建構一個包含觀光財及一般財之兩部門小型開放經濟動態隨機一般均衡（dynamic stochastic general equilibrium）模型，透過校準（calibration），分析國外觀光客來台觀光的支出（觀光外匯收入）減少對總體經濟的影響。結果顯示，國外觀光客來台支出減少，一方面衝擊觀光財部門的產出，另一方面也將產生部門重分配效果及實質匯率效果，使得一般財部門產出增加。惟後者的效果仍無法彌補觀光財部門所遭受的直接衝擊，造成總產出下降。我們也發現觀光財部門與一般財部門間的勞動替代彈性對總產出效果有重要影響。當兩部門勞動替代彈性變大時，可減緩總產出面臨的負面衝擊。此外，本文也進一步發現補貼國外觀光客支出的政策，雖然能緩和觀光財部門面臨的衝擊，但補貼政策將導致財政狀況惡化，如此使政府必須透過舉債及日後減少支出之財政調整來平衡收支，其結果對整體經濟未必有利。

The tourism sector in Taiwan has faced a large decline in foreign exchange receipts starting from the second half of 2016. This paper constructs a small open, two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to study the macroeconomic effects of tourism receipt fluctuations. It finds that the decline of tourism receipts has a negative effect on total output. In particular, the tourism sector experiences severe declines in output, labor, and investment. When the elasticity of substitution between labor of tourism and other sectors is high, the negative macroeconomic effects can be mitigated. We also investigate the effect of the tourist subsidy policy. Although the subsidy helps reduce the output decline in the tourism sector, the debt-financed subsidy deteriorates the fiscal position; the required fiscal adjustment - cutting government spending or raising taxes - in turn has negative effects on the overall economy.

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