高雄氣爆後的房價被市場暴棄了？

DID HOUSING PRICES DROP DRAMATICALLY AFTER THE KAOHSIUNG GAS EXPLOSIONS?

徐士勛(Shih-Hsun Hsu)；陳琮仁(Tsung-Jen Chen)；林士淵(Shih-Yuan Lin)；張金鶚(Chin-Oh Chang)

高雄氣爆 ； 實價登錄 ； 地理資訊系統 ； 差異中的差異法 ； Kaohsiung gas explosions ； Real estate transaction ； Geographic information system ； Difference-in-differences

經濟論文

48卷1期（2020 / 03 / 01）

33 - 68

繁體中文

為了分析2014年高雄氣爆事件對氣爆區域房屋總價的影響，我們整理氣爆前後兩年高雄市的房屋實價登錄交易資料並輔以「地理資訊系統」完成房屋的空間定位，之後我們在最適對照組的時空資料範圍下利用「差異中的差異法」進行分析。我們發現，「災害陰影效應」對平均總房價的負向影響在氣爆後9個月內並沒有顯著高於「更新效應」的正向影響；相對地，「更新效應」淨效果隨氣爆時間經過而較可能顯著拉抬房價。分量迴歸分析更顯示高總價房屋在氣爆3個月後就顯著受益於「更新效應」的抬價效果，而低總價的物件則遲至氣爆後9個月才顯著呈現此正向效果。整體而言，氣爆後「更新效應」淨效果對氣爆區房價的總拉抬效應高於公私部門投入的復建與修繕更新總經費。

In order to analyze the impact of the gas explosion in Kaohsiung in 2014 on the property prices in the gas explosion area, we accessed the official real estate transaction database to collect data on properties located inside and outside the area which were transacted two years before and after the gas explosion. A Difference-in-Differences approach was then applied based on the transaction records. The results indicated that the impact of the negative ＂hazard effect＂ on the average total price of property was not significantly higher than the positive ＂renewal effect＂ in the nine months after the gas explosion. The net ＂renewal effect＂ was more likely to increase the price as time passed after the gas explosion. Moreover, the quantile analysis suggested that the high-priced properties significantly benefited from the ＂renewal effect＂ three months after the gas explosion, while the positive effect on properties with low total price was significant nine months after the explosion. Overall, the total increase in housing prices due to the net ＂renewal effect＂ in the gas explosion area was higher than the total cost of the reconstruction and renovation contributed by the public and private sectors.

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