The Effect of Risk Information on Housing Prices in Taiwan

風險資訊對台灣房屋價格之影響

鄭子長(Tzu-Chang Forrest Cheng)；王泰期(Tai-Chi Wang)；朱建達(Jian-Da Zhu)

Information disclosure ； Risk perception ； Housing market ； Soil liquefaction risk ； 資訊公告 ； 風險認知 ； 房屋市場 ； 土壤液化風險

經濟論文

50卷1期（2022 / 03 / 01）

41 - 73

英文

This research uses a difference-in-differences framework to investigate the effect of new risk information on housing prices in Taiwan. The results show that this information changed individuals' subjective risk perceptions, so that housing prices in the highest-risk areas dropped, but only temporarily in the first three months after the disclosure. This information effect happened for those apartments lacking certain earthquake-resistant characteristics. In addition, we investigate the dynamics of the effect around the boundary. We demonstrate that individuals were able to form continuous risk beliefs based on discrete information, and the housing prices dropped more sharply for apartments located closer to the center of the highest-risk area. Furthermore, individuals had updated their risk beliefs differently for apartments with different levels of earthquake resistance. For apartments with the least earthquake resistance, the immediate price drops were larger, and the housing prices returned to normal more slowly, relative to the safer apartments. Most notably, the effect did not disappear at all for those apartments with the least earthquake resistance that were also located in the center of the highest-risk area.

本文使用差異中之差異法探討風險資訊揭露對於台灣房屋市場價格的影響。研究結果顯示在資訊揭露之後，位於高風險潛勢區的房屋價格隨之下跌，顯示人們對於房屋風險的主觀認知隨即改變。然而，此價格效果僅持續了三個月，且顯現於抗震能力較差之公寓。本文進一步檢視在風險潛勢區邊界的動態效果，研究發現人們在面對離散的潛勢區公告仍然能夠形成連續的風險認知，且越靠近高風險中心，價格下跌趨勢越顯著。此外，面對不同抗震能力的房屋，人們風險認知的修正也會有所差異。抗震能力最差的公寓，相對於抗震能力較佳的房屋，風險認知修正所導致之負向價格效果不僅幅度較大，且回復速度也相對緩慢。甚者，位在高風險潛勢區中心且抗震能力最差的房屋，此負向價格效果直至本文樣本觀察期末依然持續，而未有完全回復之跡象。

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