非貿易財模型與政策搭配問題

THE ASSIGNMENT PROBLEM FOR A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY WITH NONTRADED GOODS

曹添旺(Tien-Wang Tsaur)；李柏樂(Po-Le Lee)

小型開放經濟 ； 政策搭配問題 ； 非貿易財 ； 動態穩定性 ； Small open economy ； Assignment problem ； Nontraded goods ； Dynamic stability

經濟論文

51卷4期（2023 / 12 / 01）

357 - 381

繁體中文;英文

本文建構非貿易財模型分析政府與中央銀行之間的政策搭配問題，兩個政策目標分別為物價穩定（內部均衡）以及貿易平衡（外部均衡）。理論模型指出政府對非貿易財支出的總合政府支出彈性在政策搭配問題中扮演重要角色。若政府對非貿易財支出的總合政府支出彈性相對小，則應以貨幣政策維持外部均衡，而以財政政策維持內部均衡（法則一）；反之，若以貨幣政策維持內部均衡，而以財政政策維持外部均衡（法則二），則將造成動態的不安定。我們更發現，若政府對非貿易財支出的總合政府支出彈性相對大，導致政府實施擴張性財政政策引發貿易帳餘額增加，則兩種法則皆滿足動態安定性。我們以此強調政府應該增加對非貿易財的支出，從而增加政策搭配上的彈性。

This paper develops a nontraded goods model to analyze the assignment problem of how the government and central bank cooperate. The policy goals are price stability (internal balance) and trade balance (external balance). Our model shows that the aggregate government expenditure elasticity of government expenditure on nontraded goods is a critical variable parameter for the assignment problem. If the aggregate government expenditure elasticity of government expenditure on nontraded goods is low, the central bank should secure the external balance and the government should secure the internal balance (Rule I). It is unstable if the central bank secures the internal balance, and the government secures the external balance (Rule II). Moreover, if the aggregate government expenditure elasticity of government expenditure on nontraded goods is high, such that an increase in aggregate government expenditure leads to a rise in the trade balance, then both rules are stable. We conclude the government should increase spending on non-tradable goods to increase the flexibility of the policy assignment.

1. 曹添旺, T.-W.,曹真睿, J.-R.,林彥慶(2019)。總體經濟參數與政策搭配問題。經濟研究，55(1)，115-146。
   連結：
2. Aloryito, G. K.,Senadza, B.,Nketiah-Amponsah, E.(2016).Testing the Twin DeficitsHypothesis: Effect of Fiscal Balance on Current Account Balance: A Panel Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa.Modern Economy,7(9),945-954.
3. Asandului, M.,Lupu, D.,Maha, L. G.,Viorică, D.(2021).The Asymmetric Effectsof Fiscal Policy on Inflation and Economic Activity in Post-Communist European Countries.Post-Communist Economies,33(7),900-920.
4. Caves, R. E.,Frankel, J. A.,Jones, R. W.(2007).World Trade and Payments: An Introduction.Boston, MA:Pearson.
5. Chen, C.-N.(1979).Money and Prices in an Increasingly Open Economy: The Case ofTaiwan.Journal of Macroeconomics,1(3),285-293.
6. Chen, C.-N.(1977).Growth, Liquidity, Prices, and the Balance of Payments.Academia Economic Papers,5(1),1-20.
7. Devereux, M.(1988).Non-Traded Goods and the International Transmission of Fiscal Policy.Canadian Journal of Economics,21,265-278.
8. Dornbusch, R.(1980).Open Economy Macroeconomics.New York:Basic Books.
9. Dornbusch, R.(1973).Devaluation, Money, and Nontraded Goods.American Economic Review,63(5),871-880.
10. Ferrara, L.,Metelli, L.,Natoli, F.,Siena, D.(2021).Questioning the Puzzle: Fiscal Policy,Real Exchange Rate and Inflation.Journal of International Economics,133,103524.
11. Fitch-Roy, O.,Benson, D. ,Monciardini, D.(2021).All Around the World: Assessing Optimality in Comparative Circular Economy Policy Packages.Journal of Cleaner Production,286,125493.
12. Frenkel, J. A.(1986).International Interdependence and the Constraints on Macroeconomic Policies.WeltwirtschaftlichesArchiv,122(4),615-646.
13. Greenwood, J.(1984).Non-Traded Goods, the Trade Balance, and the Balance of Payments.Canadian Journal of Economics,17(4),806-823.
14. Kanger, L.,Sovacool, B. K.,Noorkõiv, M.(2020).Six Policy Intervention Points for Sustainability Transitions: A Conceptual Framework and a Systematic LiteratureReview.Research Policy,49(7),104072.
15. Kimbrough, K. P.(1985).An Examination of the Effects of Government Purchases in an Open Economy.Journal of International Money and Finance,4(1),113-133.
16. Meade, J. E.(1951).The Balance of Payments.London:Oxford University Press.
17. Monacelli, T.,Perotti, R.(2008).Openness and the Sectoral Effects of Fiscal Policy.Journal of the European Economic Association,6(2-3),395-403.
18. Mundell, R. A.(1962).The Appropriate Use of Monetary and Fiscal Policy for Internal and External Stability.IMF Staff Papers,9(1),70-79.
19. Murphy, R. G.(1986).Tariffs, Non-Traded Goods and Fiscal Policy.The International Trade Journal,1(2),193-211.
20. Nakibullah, A.,Cho, J.(1993).The Effects of Government Spending on Non-Traded Goods.Southern Economic Journal,59(3),410-424.
21. Pérez-Blanco, C. D.,Hrast-Essenfelder, A.,Perry, C.(2020).Irrigation Technology andWater Conservation: A Review of the Theory and Evidence.Review of Environmental Economics and Policy,14(2),216-239.
22. Rubio, M.,Gallego, J. A. Carrasco-(2015).Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Rules:A Welfare Analysis.The Manchester School,83(2),127-152.
23. Sellekaerts, W.(ed.)(1973).International Trade and Finance.London:Palgrave Macmillan.
24. Svensson, L. E. O.(2018).Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy: Different andSeparate?.Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne D’économique,51(3),802-827.
25. Tagkalakis, A. O.(2015).Fiscal Policy, Net Exports, and the Sectoral Composition of Output in Greece.International Economics and Economic Policy,12(4),521-539.
26. Tinbergen, J.(1952).On the Theory of Economic Policy.Amsterdam:North-Holland.
27. Yellen, J. L.(2011).Macroprudential Supervision and Monetary Policy in the Post-Crisis World.Business Economics,46(1),3-12.
28. 曹添旺, T.-W.(2022)。小型開放經濟體的物價變動: 非貿易財模型的應用。中央銀行季刊，44(2)，15-26。