參進與退出的對稱性與相關性―台灣製造業的實證分析

Symmetry and Relativity of Entry and Exit-Empirical Evidence from Taiwan's Manufacturing Industries

10.6350/JSSP.200203.0033

陳忠榮(Jong-Rong Chen)；莊文彬(Wen-Bin Chuang)；楊志海(Chih-Hai Yang)

參進 ； 退出 ； 轉業 ； 取代效果 ； 填補效果 ； entry ； exit ； switch ； displacement ； replacement

人文及社會科學集刊

14卷1期（2002 / 03 / 01）

33 - 54

繁體中文

本文利用75年、80年以及85年的工商普查資料來探討台灣製造業廠商參進與退出的相關性與對稱性以及其決定因素。此外，由於台灣製造業轉業的情形相當普遍，我們亦討論轉業對於廠商參進與退出的影響。實證估計的結果顯示：影響參進與退出的因素並未出現對稱性，參進與退出的相關性則可由填補效果和取代效果來解釋，且該二效果同時存在。至於參進與退出的影響因素方面，轉業率則為參進率與退出率的主要影響因素之一。

This paper makes use of recent census data to understand the links between entry and exit in respect of Taiwan's manufacturing industries and their determinants. In addition, we also explore whether switch ratio is the determinant of the entry and exit. Empirical results show that both displacement and replacement effects exist in Taiwan's manufacturing industries, while the symmetry hypothesis is rejected. As far as the influences on entry and exit are concerned, switch ratio is very important.

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