题名

台灣樂透彩券之價格需求彈性：隨機選號與自覺選號下之估計

并列篇名

The Price Elasticity of Demand for Taiwan's Lottery Tickets: The Estimation under Random Selection and Conscious Selection

DOI

10.6350/JSSP.200412.0487

作者

林玫吟(Mei-Yin Lin)；王智賢(Jue-Shyan Wang)

关键词

隨機選號 ； 自覺選號 ； 彩券 ； conscious selection ； random selection ； lottery

期刊名称

人文及社會科學集刊

卷期/出版年月

16卷4期（2004 / 12 / 01）

页次

487 - 503

内容语文

繁體中文
中文摘要

本文以樂透公益彩券為主題，分析台灣民眾的購券行為。首先，我們以限制應變數模型來估計累積頭彩機率函數，發現台灣民眾選號行為是屬於自覺性的選擇而非隨機性的選擇，而此將易提高累積頭彩的機率，降低報酬預期價值。其次，我們利用有效價格模型估計彩券的需求函數，實證結果顯示台灣公益彩券無論是隨機性的選號或自覺性的選號，價格需求彈性均遠大於1，代表目前彩券有效價格過高，應降低售價或徵收率才可提高彩券收入。
英文摘要

We analyze the demand for Taiwan's lottery tickets during the first 186 lottery drawings. Using a limited dependent variable model to estimate the rollover probability function, we find the players select numbers consciously, not randomly. This raises the rollover probability of the grand prize and reduces the expected value of return. Moreover, we employ the effective price to estimate the demand for lottery tickets. The result shows the price elasticity is larger than 1, implying the revenue raised from the lottery will be increased by reducing the selling price and the take-out rate.
主题分类 人文學 > 人文學綜合
社會科學 > 社會科學綜合
参考文献
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被引用次数
  1. Wang, Jue-Shyan,Lin, Mei-Yin(2006).Number Selection Strategy of Lottery Players: An Empirical Study of the Taiwan Lottery.臺灣經濟預測與政策,37(1),49-67.
  2. (2016).Sentimental relationships between lottery participation and household consumption.Asia Pacific Management Review,21(1),38-47.
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