菸價要調漲多少：菸品健康福利捐課徵對香菸消費的影響效果

Cigarette Price Hike: The Effect of Tobacco Health Welfare Tax on Cigarette Consumption

10.6350/JSSP.200603.0001

李家銘(Jie-Min Lee)；葉春淵(Chun-Yuan Ye)；黃琮琪(Tsorng-Chyi Hwang)

菸價 ； 菸品健康福利捐 ； 價格彈性 ； 香菸消費 ； cigarette price ； tobacco health welfare tax ； price elasticity ； cigarette consumption

人文及社會科學集刊

18卷1期（2006 / 03 / 01）

1 - 35

繁體中文

本研究主要目的在藉由香菸價格彈性估計來評估「菸品健康福利捐」課徵對香菸消費的影響效果。研究結果發現，進口香菸需求價格彈性為－0.807，國產香菸的需求價格彈性為－0.49，在每包菸品健康福利捐從原本的5元提高到10元，即每包菸品健康福利捐再調漲5元，在菸商反映成本上漲之下，若調漲每包香菸價格5元，將使國人平均每人國產香菸及進口香菸消費減少3.23包及4.86包，合計平均每人的香菸消費量減少8.09包，國人全部香菸消費量減少約1.48億包，可使菸品健康福利捐多增收90.5億元。在香菸價格要調漲多少部分，若要將國人的香菸消費量低於1998年世界的平均消費水準約為每人消費61包，則進口香菸及國產香菸每包必須分別調漲29元，才能使平均每人消費量減少46.93包，此時國人全部香菸消費量減少約8億6千萬包，平均每人香菸消費量減少44%。

The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of a ”Tobacco Health Welfare Tax” on cigarette consumption through the estimation of cigarette price elasticities. It's found that the price elasticities for domestic and imported cigarettes, calculated at sample means, are -0.49 and -0.807. The raising of the health welfare tax from 5 NT$/pack to 10 NT$/pack is an increase of 5 NT$ per pack. Provided the cost reflection in the tobacco business is 5 NT$/pack, there would be a per capita decrease of 2.23 and 4.86 packs in domestic and imported cigarette consumption, respectively. That is, there would be a reduction of 8.09 packs per capita or 148-million pack decrease in cigarette consumption, resulting in additional tobacco health welfare tax revenue of NT$ 9.5 billion. To reduce the cigarette consumption of Taiwan below the world average, 61 packs per capita, and taking the consumption and retail price in 2004 as the base, there should be a price hike of NT$ 29/pack in imported and domestic cigarettes, respectively, to reduce total cigarette consumption by 46.93 packs per capita. Total cigarette consumption should be reduced by about 860 million packs, or a per capita cigarette consumption decrease of 44%.

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