臺灣的社會救助動態：趨勢、型態與成因

Social Assistance Dynamics in Taiwan: Trend, Type and Causes

10.6350/JSSP.200812.0441

呂朝賢(Chao-Hsien Leu)；陳俊全(Michael Chun-Chuan Chen)；王德睦(Te-Mu Wang)

貧窮動態 ； 貧窮時段 ； 貧窮年資 ； poverty dynamics ； poverty spells ； duration of poverty spell

人文及社會科學集刊

20卷4期（2008 / 12 / 01）

441 - 479

繁體中文

本文以全民健康保險研究資料庫的承保資料檔爲基礎，運用生命表、Bane & Ellwood的貧窮動態分配公式，及Cox Regression等分析方法，試圖探討臺灣的貧窮動態型態，以及不同世代與時期的貧窮動態分配型態輿其相關的特徵有何不同？研究結果顯示臺灣貧民的中位數貧窮年資爲4.73年，平均脫貧機率爲0.1275。貧窮人口中以短暫貧窮者居多，且具有低脫貧率、高再入貧率的特性，顯示臺灣貧民爲一具高度同質性與穩定性的社經地位團體。其中以女性、0~4歲、居住於高度都市化城鎮者屬於最不易脫離貧窮的人口；相對的，15~29歲、居住於農業市鎮者則屬較易脫貧者。最後，再入貧窮者前一次的貧窮年資愈長，則愈不易脫貧。

Base on the registry data for beneficiaries from the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan, this study uses statistical techniques such as Life Table, Bane & Elwood's distribution formula of poverty dynamics, and Cox Regression to reveal the trend, type and patterns of poverty dynamics in Taiwan. We find that the median duration of poverty spell is 4.73 years, and the average probability of exiting poverty is 0.1275. Even though the short-term poor represent the largest portion of the poor population, it is the long-term poor who have contributed the most significant part of the overall person-years. The poor population in Taiwan also exhibits distinctive features: lower exit rate and higher reentry rate, and these features correspond to the fact that the poor population constitutes a highly homogeneous and stable social-economic status group. In terms of the probability of exiting poverty, those who are female, aged 0 to 4 years, and reside in highly urbanized counties are the least likely ones to succeed in exiting poverty. In contrast, those who live in agricultural counties, aged 15-29 years, are the most likely to exit poverty. Regarding the recurrent poor, the longer their previous duration of poverty spell is, the less likely they will exit poverty.

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