中國大陸城鎮地區之水果需求：二階段預算配置模型之應用

Demand for Fruit in Urban China: Application of a Two-stage Budgeting Model

10.6350/JSSP.200812.0553

劉鋼(Kang Ernest Liu)；崔曉倩(Hsiao-Chien Tsui)；陳麗妃(Li-Fei Chen)

中國大陸 ； 需求分析 ； LES-AIDS模型 ； 二階段預算配置模型 ； 水果 ； China ； demand analysis ； LES-AIDS model ； two-stage budgeting model ； fruits

人文及社會科學集刊

20卷4期（2008 / 12 / 01）

553 - 578

繁體中文

近來，中國大陸針對台灣水果的優惠關稅政策，引發台灣朝野間相當不同的看法。在中國國民所得持續成長、可支配所得逐年增加之下，當地居民對於食品消費乃至水果需求的現況如何，是評估台灣水果輸銷中國大陸之際不得不考量的因素。鑑此，本文擬從二階段預算配置(two-stage budgeting)模型出發，針對中國大陸城鎮居民自1996年至2001年間的家計支出，利用追縱資料模型(panel data model)來推估價格與所得的改變，對於大陸城鎮居民在食品以及水果消費配置下所形成的影響。結果顯示，水果類在食品消費當中最具支出彈性，反應出所得持續提升之下，城鎮居民對於水果的需求最爲強烈。此外，水果品目當中又以西瓜、香蕉與葡萄的支出彈性最大，顯示中國大陸城鎮居民在消費支出增加之時，對於選購上述三種果物的意願較高。本文分析結果除有助於清楚瞭解中國大陸的水果需求現況外，在水果輸銷中國大陸的政策考量上，也提供了某些程度的參考價值。

This study, motivated by an open trade policy for fruit between Taiwan and China, utilized a two-stage budgeting allocation to construct an LES-AIDS model. In order to better understand fruit consumption patterns in urban China, we employed annual provincial data from urban China between 1996 and 2001. We estimated a fixed-effect panel data model to investigate demands for fruits and other foods in urban China and attempted to make potential policy implications for fresh fruit trade between Taiwan and China. Our empirical results revealed several important findings. First, estimated expenditure elasticities from the first-stage food demand system show that fruits and aquatic products are the two food groups which the Chinese urban households would increase consumption of the most, as long as their income continues to grow as expected. In addition, among all fruit items of interest, watermelons, bananas and grapes have the highest expenditure elasticities (both conditional and unconditional elasticities), indicating that Chinese urban households would increase their consumption of these fruit items more than the others. Finally, our empirical analyses in this study provide a better understanding of fruit consumption patterns in urban China and may provide constructive suggestions for the Taiwanese government concerning related policies of fruit exports to China.

1. 張靜貞、許文富(2004)。台灣農產品的出口行銷―兼論政府的角色。農業與經濟，32，1-28。
   連結：
2. 陳永順、劉鋼、賴宏彬(2007)。中國城鎮食品需求之估計：追蹤資料模型之運用。農業經濟叢刊，13，91-124。
   連結：
3. Baltagi, B. H.(1995).Econometric Analysis of Panel Data.USA:John Wiley & Sons.
4. Barten, A. P.(1977).The Systems of Consumer Demand Functions Approach: A Review.Econometrica,45,23-51.
5. Carpentier, A.,H. Guyomard(2001).Unconditional Elasticities in Two-Stage Demand Systems: An Approximate Solution.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,83,222-229.
6. Chern, W. S.,G. Wang(1994).The Engel Function and Complete Food Demand System for Chinese Urban Households.China Economic Review,4,35-57.
7. Deaton, A.,J. Muellbauer(1980).An Almost Ideal Demand System.American Economic Review,70,312-326.
8. Fan, S.,E. J. Wailes,G. L. Cramer(1995).Household Demand in Rural China: A Two-Stage LES-AIDS Model.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,77,54-62.
9. Gao, X. M.,E. J. Wailes,G. L. Cramer(1996).A Two-Stage Rural Household Demand Analysis: Microdata Evidence from Jiangsu Province, China.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,78,604-613.
10. Gould, B. W.,H. J. Villarreal(2006).An Assessment of the Current Structure of Food Demand in Urban China.Agricultural Economics,34,1-16.
11. Han, T.,T. I. Wahl(1998).China`s Rural Household Demand for Fruit and Vegetables.Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics,30,141-150.
12. Hsiao, C.(2003).Analysis of Panel Data.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
13. Huang, J.,S. Rozelle(1998).Market Development and Food Demand in Rural China.China Economic Review,9,25-45.
14. Levin, A.,C. F. Lin,C. SJ. Chu(2002).Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties.Journal of Econometrics,108,1-24.
15. Lin, J.Y.(1992).Rural Reforms and Agricultural Growth in China.American Economic Review,82,34-51.
16. Stone, R.(1954).Linear Expenditure Systems and Demand Analysis: An Application to Pattern of British Demand.Economic Journal,64,511-527.
17. Wan, G. H.(2005).Convergence in Food Consumption in Rural China: Evidence from Household Survey Data.China Economic Review,16,90-102.
18. Wu, Y.,E. Li,S.N. Samuel(1995).Food Consumption in Urban China: An Empirical Analysis.Applied Economics,27,509-515.
19. Yen, S. T.,C. Fang,S. J. Su(2004).Household Food Demand in Urban China: A Censored System Approach.Journal of Comparative Economics,32,564-585.
20. Zellner, A.(1962).An Efficient Method of Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regressions and Tests for Aggregation Bias.Journal of the American Statistical Association,57,348-368.
21. Zhang, X.,T. D. Mount,R. N. Boisvert(2001).The Demand for Food Grain in China: New Insights into a Controversy.Agricultural and Resource Economics Review,30,1-9.
22. 中國國家統計局(1996)。中國城鎮居民家庭收支調查資料庫。
23. 行政院大陸委員會(2005)。台灣水果輸銷大陸問題相關說明。
24. 孫鳳(2002)。消費者行為數量研究―以中國城鎮居民爲例。上海:人民出版社。
25. 國政研究報告

1. 蕭清仁、黃聖茹(2011)。加入WTO 後進口果品價格替代關係之估計。亞太經濟管理評論，15(1)，41-58。
2. (2023)。臺灣蘋果進口需求體系之估計。農業經濟叢刊，29(2)，1-46。