人民幣實質匯率與中國對美出口之關係－第三國效果

The Relationship between Real Exchange Rates of Renminbi and China's Exports to U.S.-Third-Country Effects

10.6350/JSSP.200909.0353

陳坤銘(Kun-Ming Chen)；饒秀華(Hsiu-Hua Rau)；邱如伶(Ru-Lin Chiu)

匯率 ； 中美貿易 ； 第三國效果 ； exchange rates ； Sino-US trade ； third-country effects

人文及社會科學集刊

21卷3期（2009 / 09 / 01）

353 - 387

繁體中文

近年來，中國對美國出口持續大幅成長。本文目的在於利用1999年至2007年月資料估計中國對美國出口函數，以瞭解中國對美國出口主要決定因素，並深入探討人民幣匯率在其出口成長中所扮演的角色。本文實證結果顯示，近年來中國對美出口持續上揚的原因相當複雜，不能完全歸因於人民幣匯率受到人爲操縱。近年人民幣名自匯率由原先釘住美元轉向升值，但實質匯率卻呈現貶值趨勢，直到2005年後才緩步升值；此對中國產品銷往美國市場確實有所助益。此外，由於中國主要中間財進口國之加權實質匯率在此期間走貶，對中國加工出口產品輸往美國在供給面有進一步推升的作用。再者，中國與其他第三國在美國市場呈現出互補的關係；此意味其他第三國加權實質匯率之波動在需求面對中國對美國出口帶來另外一項動力。最後，外人直接投資大幅流入中國與近年美國實質所得的提升，也都對中國對美國出口之擴張有顯著推升作用。

Recently, China's exports to the United States have been increasing significantly. The purpose of this paper is to employ monthly data over 1999-2007 to estimate China's export function for the Sino-US trade with a view to exploring the driving forces behind the increasing trend. This study could a provide better understanding about the role played by the exchange rate of the Renminbi in determining the export volume of China in the U.S. market. The empirical results of this paper reveal that the causes for the persistent increase of China's exports to the U.S. are too complex to be solely attributed to the intervention in the exchange rates of the Renminbi. Although the nominal exchange rate of the Renminbi was pegged to the U.S. Dollar and then appreciated during this period, the real exchange rates of Renminbi were depreciating unti1 2005 and then appreciating gradually, which was beneficial to China's exports to the U.S. market. The depreciation of the real exchange rates of the third countries which provided intermediate materials to China further stimulated the growth of China's processed exports on the supply side. In addition, the final products of China and some other third countries seem to be complements in the U.S. market, which implies that the f1uctuation in the real exchange rates of third countries was also another driving force for the increase of China's exports on the demand side. Finally, large inf10ws of foreign direct investment into China and recent increases in the real income of the U.S. have also helped to enhance China's export growth in the U.S. market.

1. Armington, Paul S.(1969).A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production.IMF Staff Papers,16,159-178.
2. Garcia-Herrero, Alicia,Tuuli Koivu(2007).Impact of China's Exchange Rate Policy on Trade in Asia.presented at the Third Annual Asia-Pacific Economic Association (APEA) Conference,Hong Kong:
3. Global Trade Information Services, Inc.(2007).World Trade Atlas Databases.
4. Goldstein, M.,M. S. Khan,R. W. Jones (eds.),P. B. Kenen (eds.)(1985).Handbook of International Economics.Amsterdam:Elsevier Science.
5. Hale, G.,C. Long(2006).mimeo.New Haven:Yale University.
6. International Monetary Fund(2007).International Financial Statistics (IFS).
7. Internet Securities, Inc.(2007).Chinese Economic Information Company Databases (CEIC).
8. Johansen, S.(1988).Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors.Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,12,231-254.
9. Johansen, S.,K. Juselius(1990).Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration-with Applications to the Demand of Money.Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,52(2),169-210.
10. Liu, Z.(2002).Foreign Direct Investment and Technology Spillover: Evidence from China.Journal of Comparative Economics,30(3),579-602.
11. Rahman, M.,W. Thorbecke(2007).How Would China's Exports Be Affected by a Unilateral Appreciation of the RMB and a Joint Appreciation of Countries Supplying Intermediate Imports?.RIETI Discussion Paper No. 07-E-012.
12. Thorbecke, W.,G. Smith(2007).mimeo.Fairfax, VA:George Mason University.
13. 中國統計年鑑
14. 中國投資指南
15. 包群、彭水軍、賴明勇(2004)。第四屆中國經濟學年會。天津:中國經濟學年會秘書處。
16. 官春峰、厲以寧編、秦宛順編(1991)。中國對外經濟與國際收支研究。北京:國際文化出版公司。
17. 馬征、李芬(2006)。從產業間貿易到產業內貿易－我國貿易結構演變的實證研究。國際貿易問題，3，15-20。
18. 曾錚、張亞斌(2007)。人民幣實質匯率升值與中國出口商品結構調整。世界經濟，5，16-24。
19. 楊帆(2005)。人民幣匯率制度歷史回顧。中國經濟史研究，4，1-8。
20. 盧向前、戴國強(2005)。人民幣實際匯率波動對我國進出口的影響：1994~2003。經濟研究，5，31-39。
21. 戴祖祥(1997)。我國貿易收支的彈性分析：1981~1995。經濟研究，7，55-62。

1. 陳英祥,姚名鴻,林靖傑,林文祥(2023)。中美貿易戰事件、社會責任資訊揭露與公司治理對股價異常報酬影響－以科技業為例。中山管理評論，31(3)，447-479。
2. (2015)。臺灣及兩岸三地之匯率聯動性─以 Copula-GARCH 模型分析。臺灣銀行季刊，66(3)，51-84。