開放經濟總體政策的三難困境

Macroeconomic Policies' Trilemma

李秀雲(Hsiu-Yun Lee)

開放經濟 ； 總體政策 ； 三難困境 ； 三難指標 ； 貨幣自主性指標 ； open economy ； macroeconomic policy ； trilemma ； trilemma index ； monetary autonomy index

人文及社會科學集刊

26卷3期（2014 / 09 / 01）

341 - 385

繁體中文

開放體系總體政策的目標常互相衝突，貨幣政策自主性、國際資金的自由移動、與匯率穩定往往難以兼顧，稱「三難困境假說」。但Aizenman et al. (2010)認為外匯存底累積可使三難箝制放寬，這對執政者施政無疑是一大利多。但要較嚴謹地檢驗三難假說，首先要有各政策目標的具體度量。本研究回顧文獻上各式政策指標的建構原因與優缺點，也提出自己的修正指標，並透過檢定均數與變異數相對大小來支持三難困境之存在。此外，本文以動態追蹤資料模型估計，發現三難困境會因外匯累積而放寬的假說並無法頑強地獲得支持。

The Macroeconomic policy ＂trilemma＂, with trade-offs pursuing monetary autonomy, exchange rate stability, and international financial integration, has not been tested formally due to both difficulty in measuring these policy intentions practically and lack of a clear, mathematical implication of the three policy goals in theory. This paper surveys previous metrics for measuring these policy goals, introduces a new ＂monetary autonomy index＂, and constructs trilemma indices by adding three individual policy indices. Herein, we consider two measures for exchange rate stability, two for monetary autonomy, and one for financial integration as the individual policy indices. Panel data are collected on over 120 economies since 1974 and catalogued into three groups: developed economies, emerging markets, and other developing economies. We compare different measures for a specific policy goal and show, except for Aizenman et al. (2010) ＂monetary independence index＂, how these indices vary across countries in a group. Because the trilemma implies that for any period the trilemma index cannot achieve a very high level like individual policy indices can, and that three individual indices in one time span cannot increase together, we further test hypotheses for the indices' means and variances for countries at different development stages. Finally, we employ GMM dynamic panel data models to test the hypothesis in Aizenman et al. (2010) about relaxing the trilemma via amassing large foreign reserves. Only weak and unrobust evidence is found supporting their hypothesis.

1. Aizenman, Joshua 2010 "The Impossible Trinity (aka The Policy Trilemma): The Encyclopedia of Financial Globalization," University of California, Manuscript.
2. International Monetary Fund 2009-2011 World Economic Outlook Database. Retrieved March 25, 2014, from http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02/weodata/index.aspx.http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02/weodata/index.aspx
3. Lee, Hsiu-yun, Wen-ya Chang, and Tai-kuan Ho 2009 "How Dirty Is a Foreign Exchange Market? A Simple Time Series Measure," National Chung Cheng University, Manuscript.
4. The World Bank 2009-2011 World Development Index. Washington: The World Bank
5. Adolfson, Malin,Laséen, Stefan,Lindé, Jesper,Villani, Mattias(2008).Evaluating an Estimated New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model.Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,32,2690-2721.
6. Aizenman, Joshua,Chinn, Menzie D.,Ito, Hiro(2008).NBER Working Paper No. 14533NBER Working Paper No. 14533,未出版
7. Aizenman, Joshua,Chinn, Menzie D.,Ito, Hiro(2011).Surfing the Waves of Globalization: Asia and Financial Globalization in the Context of the Trilemma.Journal of the Japanese and Interntional Economies,25(3),290-320.
8. Aizenman, Joshua,Chinn, Menzie D.,Ito, Hiro(2010).The Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Tracing and Evaluating New Patterns of the Trilemma Configuration.Journal of International Money and Finance,29(4),615-641.
9. Arellano, Manuel,Bond, Stephen(1991).Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations.Review of Economic Studies,58(2),277-297.
10. Arellano, Manuel,Bover, Olympia(1995).Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-components Models.Journal of Econometrics,68(1),29-51.
11. Bluedorn, John C.,Bowdler, Christopher(2010).The Empirics of International Monetary Transmission: Identification and the Impossibility Trinity.Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,42(4),679-713.
12. Borensztein, Eduardo,Zettelmeyer, Jeromin,Philippon, Thomas(2001).IMF Working Paper No. WP/01/1IMF Working Paper No. WP/01/1,未出版
13. Chinn, Menzie D.,Ito, Hiro(2008).A New Measure of Financial Openness.Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice,10(3),309-322.
14. Chinn, Menzie D.,Ito, Hiro(2006).What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions.Journal of Development Economics,81(1),163-192.
15. Edwards, Sebastian(1985).Money, the Rate of Devaluation and Interest Rates in a Semi-Open Economy: Colombia 1968-1982.Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,17(1),59-68.
16. Edwards, Sebastian(2007).Capital Controls, Sudden Stops, and Current Account Reversals.Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences,Chicago:
17. Edwards, Sebastian(ed.),Garcia, Márcio G. P.(ed.)(2008).Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets.Chicago:University of Chicago Press.
18. Eichengreen, Barry(1994).International Monetary Arrangements for the 21st Century.Washington, DC:Brookings Institution.
19. Frankel, Jeffrey,Schmukler, Sergio L.,Servén, Luis(2004).Global Transmission of Interest Rates: Monetary Independence and Currency Regime.Journal of International Money and Finance,23(5),701-733.
20. Hanke, Steve H.(2002).On Dollarization and Currency Boards: Error and Deception.Journal of Policy Reform,5(4),203-222.
21. Harberger, Arnold C.(1980).Vignettes on the World Capital Market.The American Economic Review,70(2),331-337.
22. Hausmann, Ricardo,Panizza, Ugo,Stein, Ernesto(2001).Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?.Journal of Development Economics,66(2),387-414.
23. Holden, Paul,Holden, Merle,Suss, Esther C.(1979).The Determinants of Exchange Rate Flexibility: An Empirical Investigation.Review of Economics and Statistics,61(3),327-333.
24. Hossain, Monzur(2011).International Monetary Arrangement for the 21st Century-Which Way?.Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,25(2),47-63.
25. Masson, Paul R.(2001).Exchange Rate Regime Transitions.Journal of Development Economics,64(2),571-586.
26. Mundell, Robert A.(1963).Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates.Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science,29(4),475-485.
27. Obstfeld, Maurice,Shambaugh, Jay C.,Taylor, Alan M.(2010).Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves.American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,2(2),57-94.
28. Obstfeld, Maurice,Shambaugh, Jay C.,Taylor, Alan M.(2004).Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: The Trilemma in the Interwar Period.IMF Staff Papers,51,75-108.
29. Obstfeld, Maurice,Shambaugh, Jay C.,Taylor, Alan M.(2005).The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility.Review of Economics and Statistics,87(3),423-438.
30. Quinn, Dennis P.(2003).Capital Account Liberalization and Financial Globalization, 1890-1999: A Synoptic View.International Journal of Finance and Economics,8(3),189-204.
31. Rose, Andrew K.(1996).Explaining Exchange Rate Volatility: An Empirical Analysis of 'the Holy Trinity' of Monetary Independence, Fixed Exchange Rates, and Capital Mobility.Journal of International Money and Finance,15(6),925-945.
32. Shambaugh, Jay C.(2004).The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy.Quarterly Journal of Economics,119(1),301-352.

1. 李秀雲(2021)。建構台灣的外匯市場干預資料。經濟論文叢刊，49(1)，131-166。