印度在美中互動的槓桿角色

India's Leverage in US-China Interactions

黎寶文(Pao-wen Li)

美中關係 ； 印度 ； 三角關係 ； 第三方影響 ； 事件資料 ； US-China relations ； India ； triangular relations ； third-party effect ； event data

人文及社會科學集刊

32卷4期（2020 / 12 / 01）

559 - 605

繁體中文

印度在美中兩大強權之間的第三方影響爲何？本文利用事件資料庫探討兩個問題：（1）印度是否扮演牽動中美互動的關鍵角色？（2）若然，印度如何牽動中美雙方互動？透過時間序列分析1995年至2017年間的美中印三邊互動行爲紀錄發現，在控制美中經濟相互依賴與兩國內部政權輪替的情形下，來自印度的第三方影響確實存在於美中互動過程，也印證了印度以區域競爭者的身分，在美中競逐中扮演牽制中國之角色。美印關係是影響中美決策者決定合作與衝突的關鍵，印度的合作與否將影響美中交往的利弊分析與威脅認知。

What role does India play as a third party in US-China interactions? This paper aims to answer the question based on event data with two steps. First, is India a significant third party when analyzing US-China relations? Second, if yes, how does India's third-party effect work? By investigating the US-China-India triangular interaction from 1995 to 2017 with time-series analysis, I show that India's third-party effect is significant in US-China relations and works as a regional competitor to check and balance China's rise as the US strategy suggests. The analysis in this paper also indicates that US-India relations are the key for the United States and China to plan their next interactions. Furthermore, India's cooperation is the crucial element to influence the perceptions of threat and the cost-benefit analysis of both the United States and China in their decision-making process.

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