十八世紀東南沿海米價市場的整合性分析

Integration of Rice Markets on the Southeastern Coast of China during the Eighteenth Century

10.6277/ter.2002.302.1

陳仁義(Zen-Yi Chen)；王業鍵(Yeh-Chien Wang)；周昭宏(Chao-Hung Chou)

分解模型 ； 季節變動 ； 相關係數 ； 矩陣指標函數 ； Decomposition model ； correlation coefficient ； seasonal variation ； correlation matrix index

經濟論文叢刊

30卷2期（2002 / 06 / 01）

151 - 173

繁體中文

為了探討十八世紀時期東南沿海的米價市場整合性，我們引用了時間數列的統計分解模型和設計了相關係數矩陣指標函數，並且從清代糧價資料庫中選取了東南沿海四省內33個地方和鄰省一個府的米價資料，根據區域中的米糧賀易運輸路線和地理位置等特性結合成10個群組，進行科學化的印證研究，從而推斷這個區域的糧價市場整合性強弱。主要的統計分析結果正好支持了王業鍵和黃瑩玨(1999)的研究考察結論。亦即以長江三角洲為中心，地理位置愈接近或交通運輸上互通強的地區，市場的整合程度愈高。其他的相關問題也將加以討論。

To study the integration of rice markets on the southeastern coast of China, we chose thirty-four prefectures and classified these into 10 groups on the basis of rice-trading route and geographic location. We then conducted a statistical analysis of rice prices from 1741 to 1760 using a decomposition method for time series models. In doing this, the rice price data are averaged by year to remove the seasonal variation. then year-based data are further de-trended to compute the correlation coefficients of pairwise prefectures in each group used to form the correlation matrix. Two index functions of the correlation matrix are produced to measure the integration of rice markets. Our statistical results confirm the major findings of Wang and Huang (1999), that is, the shorter the distance from the Yangzi Delta, the greater the market integration observable along the Coast. More findings are also discussed.

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