貨幣政策宣示與農產品價格的動態調整：固定匯率制度的探討

Monetary Announcement and Agricultural Product Price Dynamics under Fixed Exchange Rates

10.6277/ter.2002.303.2

王葳(Vey Wang)；賴景昌(Ching-Chong Lai)；胡士文(Shih-Wen Hu)

農產品價格 ； 政策宣告 ； 貨幣政策 ； 動態調整 ； agricultural product prices ； policy announcement ； monetary policy ； dynamic adjustment

經濟論文叢刊

30卷3期（2002 / 09 / 01）

313 - 333

繁體中文

相較於實證研究,有關總體變數與農產品價格的理論分析,大部份建構於封閉的經濟體系。本文擬設立具有開放經濟特質,且涵蓋農產品市場、非農產品市場、貨幣市場與外匯市場之固定匯率模型,藉以探討政府所宣示的未來國內信用擴張政策,如何主導經濟體系的相關總體經濟變數的調整。本文的分析結果顯示:長期而言,國內信用擴張,不會影響農產品價格,但會導致外匯存底等量減少;但短期農產品價格會因應政策的宣示,呈現先上漲後下降的走勢。

Most, if not all, of the existing theore-tical studies dealing with the linkage between macroeconomic variables and agricultural product prices are concerned with closed economies. This paper instead constructs an open-economy model under fixed exchange rates. The model we set up includes the agricultural market, the non-agricultural market, the money market, and the foreign exchange market. Based on this open-economy model, we study the characteristics agricultural product prices will exhibit when the monetary authorities engage in a pre-announced monetary policy. Two main conclusions emerge from the analysis. Firstly, the expansion of domestic credit will not affect agricultural product prices, but induce the level of foreign exchange reserves decrease to the same extent as domestic credit. Secondly, agricultural product prices rise process during the period following the announcement but prior to the monetary expansion, while they decline after policy implementation.

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