私人受雇者轉換自營作業工作決策－「不景氣－推擠」效果假說

Transition to Self-employment in Taiwan - A Test of the Recession-push Hypothesis

10.6277/ter.2004.321.3

于若蓉(Ruoh-Rong Yu)

自營作業 ； 不景氣-推擠效果 ； 景氣-吸引效果 ； self-employed ； recession - push effect ； prosperity - pull effect

經濟論文叢刊

32卷1期（2004 / 03 / 01）

63 - 96

繁體中文

這篇論文的主要目的，在於分析台灣勞動市場中，私人受雇者轉換為自營作業工作的決策，以檢測「不景氣-推擠」效果假說是否成立。在資料來源方面，本文是由1978-2002年的「人力運用調查」原始資料建構短期追蹤調查的混合資料，以台灣的男性私人受雇者為分析對象，分析私人受雇者轉換為自營作業身份的決策，並將原有從業身份的選擇視作內生，建立計量模型。實證結果顯示，景氣惡化時，私人受雇者轉換為自營作業工作的機率提高，支持「不景氣-推擠」效果假說。如果區分1978-1989、1991-2002年兩個時段來看，在1978-1989年期間，失業變動率愈高，對私人受雇者轉換為自營作業者的機率有顯著的正向影響。而在1991-2002年間，該項影響效果並不顯著，顯示近十餘年間，自營作業部門已無法有效吸納就業部門過剩的就業人口。

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the decision to enter self-employment by male employees. The hypothesis of a ”recession - push” effect is also examined. The data sets come from the Manpower Utilization Surveys (MUS) conducted by DGBAS in 1978-2002. By pooling the matched sample for the adjacent years, the decision of transition into self-employment is analyzed. Furthermore, the original job status of those in the sample is treated as endogenous in the econometric setting. The results show that an increase in the unemployment rate pushes employed individuals toward self-employment, which support the ”recession - push” hypothesis. However, the empirical results in the earlier then years and the later ten years show different patterns. In 1978-1989, the increases in unemployment rates have positive effects on the transition to self-employment. The effects in 1991-2002 are not significant.

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