國際金融沖擊與價格體制崩潰—雙元匯率制度的分析

International Monetary Shocks,Price Regime Collapse under Dual Floating Exchange Rate Regimes

10.6277/ter.2004.322.1

廖培賢(Peir-Shyan Liaw)；林義豪(Yi-Hao Lin)

國際金融沖擊 ； 體制崩潰 ； 雙元浮動匯率制度 ； 匯率動態調整 ； International monetary shocks ； regime collapse ； dual floating exchange rate regimes ； exchange rate dynamics

經濟論文叢刊

32卷2期（2004 / 06 / 01）

145 - 192

繁體中文

本文以曹添旺與黃俊傑(2000)浮動匯率制度模型爲基礎，予以延伸至雙元浮動匯率制度，並納入財富效果與使用體制崩潰的分析方法，來分析：在一個實施雙元浮動匯率制度的小型開放經濟體系裡，當面臨國際金融衝擊進而帶動物價上揚、一旦物價上漲超過政策當局所能忍受的物價上限時，政策當局將採行緊縮性的貨幣政策，藉以阻止國內物價進一步攀升的情況下，其所引起的相關總體經濟變數之動態走勢。結果發現：『名目貨幣供給變動所造成的名目利率流動性效果與國外利息收入效果之和』與『名目貨幣供給變動所造成的名目利率所得效果』的相對強弱是左右相關總體經濟變數調整路徑的關鍵因素之外，同時政府所能忍受的物價上限水準也是決定體制是否崩潰的重要因素。另一方面，政策當局所能容忍的國內物價門檻水準的高低與它調整名目貨幣供給量的時機息息相關。如果當局防衛物價過度波動的意願愈強，則它將會愈早藉由貨幣政策打擊通貨膨脹。

This paper extends the theoretical model of Tsaur et al. (2000) to dual floating exchange rate regimes to incorporate the wealth effect. For a country adopting a dual floating exchange rate system, international monetary shocks will cause the price level to increase persistently. If the price level reaches the price ceil ing threshold, then the monetary authority will adopt a deflationary policy. We explore how these shocks will affect the possible adjustment paths of relevant macroeconomic variables. The major findings are as follows. The liquidity effect, foreign interest revenue effect and interest rate income effect which are all caused by change in the nominal money supply are the key factors affecting the possible adjustment paths of relevant macroeconomic variables. Moreover, whether the price regime will collapse or not and the timing of the monetary author ity's adjustment of the nominal money supply are dependent on the price ceiling threshold. The stronger the desire of the monetary authority to defend the price ceiling threshold, the earlier the monetary authority will adopt the monetary policy to attack inflation.

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