题名

新凱因斯學派之菲力浦曲線及資本移動性-理論與實證

并列篇名

New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Capital Mobility-Theory and Empirics

DOI

10.6277/ter.2006.342.2

作者

陳禮潭(Lii-Tarn Chen);陳忠榮(Jong-Rong Chen);呂仁廣(Ren-Kuang Lue)

关键词

新凱因斯學派 ; 小型開放體系 ; 新菲力浦曲線 ; 基本移動程度 ; new keynesian ; small open economy ; new phillips curve ; degree of capital mobility

期刊名称

經濟論文叢刊

卷期/出版年月

34卷2期(2006 / 06 / 01)

页次

173 - 208

内容语文

繁體中文

中文摘要

菲力浦曲線斜率的大小,可視為總體政策是否有效的一個重要指標;斜率較平緩的菲力浦曲線,代表財經當局只需犧牲少量的通貨膨脹率便可有效的提升就業率;反之則否;因此,對菲力浦曲線的分析,具有重要的政策含意。本文為了替Loungani,Razin and Yuen (2001)之模型建立個體基要,先以新凱因斯理論為分析基礎,導出小型開放體系下之菲力浦曲線的函數,藉以分析該曲線與資本移動程度間的關係。為了彌補相關實證文獻的不足,我們再以台灣的總體時間序列的季資料,來驗證本文理論模型所猜測的可能命題是否成立。從實證結果顯示,我們有足夠的證據,支持台灣的新菲力浦曲線之斜率,將隨著資本移動程度的放寬而變得較平坦。

英文摘要

The magnitude of the slope of the Phillips curve is a crucial index for the effectiveness of monetary policies. With a flatter slope, the authority can increase inflation less in order to reduce the economy's unemployment rate. Thus, identifying determinants of the output (or unemployment)-inflation tradeoff has an important policy implication. In this paper, to establish a microfoundation for the conventional model, we analysis the relationship between capital mobility and the Phillips curve, while using a small open economy based on a New Keynesian framework. We show that with greater restrictions on capital mobility, a given reduction in the inflation rate is associated with a smaller loss in output, when applied to Taiwan's time series data. This result is shown to be consistent with predictions concerning Taiwan's macroeconomic situation.

主题分类 社會科學 > 經濟學
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被引用次数
  1. 陳禮潭、陳思寬、許碧純(2009)。小型開放經濟體系之下資本移動性與貨幣政策目標效果。臺灣經濟預測與政策,40(1),1-44。
  2. 鄭漢亮、毛慶生(2013)。貨幣政策、全球化與菲利普曲線。經濟論文叢刊,41(3),219-250。
  3. 朱浩榜(2023)。探討臺灣的菲利浦曲線及其通膨預測能力。臺灣經濟預測與政策,53(2),51-103。
  4. (2024)。再探臺灣菲利浦曲線的平坦化:變數衡量的角度。臺灣經濟預測與政策,55(1),1-37。