台灣匯率制度初探

An Investigation of Exchange Rate Policy in Taiwan

10.6277/ter.2008.362.1

陳旭昇(Shiu-Sheng Chen)；吳聰敏(Tsong-Min Wu)

匯率制度 ； 匯率政策 ； 央行干預 ； exchange rate regime ； exchange rate policy ； official intervention

經濟論文叢刊

36卷2期（2008 / 06 / 01）

147 - 182

繁體中文

本文的目的是分析台灣1980年以來的匯率政策。台灣央行宣稱，匯率政策的目標是追求「動態穩定」，但一般咸認，防止升值也是央行的重要政策。本研究以匯率及外匯存底變動的資料證實以上的看法。央行的匯率干預是否有效，文獻上一直有爭議。本文的實証分析發現，阻升政策對於經濟成長並無明顯助益，而央行的匯率干預政策也無法有效地穩定匯率波動。最後，我們發現央行的匯率干預，特別是1986-1989年間的「緩升政策」，造成龐大損失。

This paper investigates the exchange rate policy in Taiwan since 1980. We identify two important policies adopted by the Taiwanese central bank: stabilization and devaluation policies, and then analyze their efficacy and impact. The empirical results suggest that the devaluation policy does not cause output growth. Moreover, the stabilization policy fails to reduce exchange rate volatility. Finally, we have shown a huge unrealized loss from official intervention, especially during so called the ”adjustment-period” in 1986-1989.

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