通貨替代與名目匯率定錨政策的失敗

Currency Substitution and the Failures of Nominal Anchor Exchange Rate Policy

10.6277/ter.2008.364.1

孫鈺峰(Yu-Fong Sun)；曹添旺(Tien-Wang Tsaur)

通貨替代 ； 名目匯率定錨 ； 匯率基礎穩定政策 ； currency substitution ； nominal anchor exchange rate policy ； exchange-rate-based stabilization program

經濟論文叢刊

36卷4期（2008 / 12 / 01）

427 - 461

繁體中文

本文以Végh(1995)所主張外國通貨能提供流動性勞務，降低交易成本的觀點爲基礎，建立一個包含交易成本的貨幣成長模型，於國內外通貨可互相替代的情況下，分析名目匯率定錨政策崩潰的過程與通貨替代程度的關連性。結果發現，匯率定錨政策失敗的主因可能是名目匯率定錨政策違反經常帳跨期平衡所致。爲了避免通貨危機提早發生，匯率政策須視通貨替代程度的高低作適當的調整。通貨替代程度較高時，貨幣當局應當在政策執行時，大幅的降低本國通貨貶值率，可使政策崩潰的時間延後；而通貨替代程度較低時，貨幣當局應當採用小幅度降低本國通貨貶值率，可拖延政策崩潰發生的時間。

This paper investigates the relationship between the failures of nominal anchor exchange rate policy and the degree of currency substitution. Following Végh (1995) we set up a transaction-based monetary model with currency substitution in which the foreign and domestic currencies both provides liquidity services to reduce transaction costs. The main reason for failure in enforcing the nominal anchor exchange rate is that the current account does not satisfy the intertemporal balance constraint. In order to delay the currency crisis, the nominal anchor exchange rate policy must have a great regard for the degree of currency substitution. When the degree of currency substitution is high, the monetary authority can greatly reduce the rate of devaluation of domestic currency. On the other hand, when the degree of currency substitution is low, the monetary authority should reduce the rate of devaluation of domestic currency as little as possible.

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