亞洲地區產業競爭優勢的更迭：雁行理論的再驗證

Shifting Comparative Advantage in East Asia: Re-examining the Flying Geese Paradigm

10.6277/ter.2009.372.4

陳宏易(Hung-Yi Chen)；黃登興(Deng-Shing Huang)

雁行理論 ； 亞洲經濟 ； 比較優勢 ； Flying Geese Model ； Asian Economies ； Comparative Advantage

經濟論文叢刊

37卷2期（2009 / 06 / 01）

185 - 211

繁體中文

本文根據雁行理論原始意義，觀察1970到2002年之美國及亞太地區各國所有SITC四位碼產業的RCA指數之起落，透過其極大值時序之落差關係，來辨識一產業是否具有跨國之先後承繼關係，以進行驗證；而後，我們進一步針對各類符合雁行產業發展模式的產品，就其產業屬性予以統計和分析。我們的主要發現如下：首先，傳統應用RCA變動序列係數是否顯著地負相關來檢證雁行發展論的方法，顯然受到主觀認定承繼國與領先國間的落後時距長短的影響，因此其結論並不可靠。其次，東亞地區各開發中國家的產業發展並非所有產業均依循這個模式。NIEs承接自美、日夕陽產業的產品大多集中在實體資本密集財、資源型製造業及人力資本密集財；而ASEAN4承接自美日及NIEs的產品則集中於初級產品、資源型製造業及勞力密集財。此外，大陸之具有比較利益的新興產業，並非如雁行理論文獻所預期的完全是承繼自ASEAN4，仍有不少大陸的新興產業是越過ASEAN4，直接承繼自NIEs。

We use the ＜||＞flying geese＜||＞ pattern of development to examine the dynamic changes in comparative advantage in East Asia and the US during 1970 and 2002 by using SITC Rev.2 trade data at the four-digit level. We first argue that the traditional approach of comparing Spearman rank coefficients for pairs of countries' RCA vectors is not only unreliable due to the aggregation bias of data but also sensitive to the presumed lag period from catching up. Alternatively we compare the pattern of the time series of RCA by industry for pairs of countries to identify whether a declining sector in the presumed advanced country, the leading goose, is matched with a rising sector in a catching-up country. The major findings are as follows: First, not all industries follow the flying-geese development pattern in East Asia. Secondly, among those declining industries in Japan and/or the US, NIEs caught up earlier than the ASEAN4. For the NIEs the catching-up industries are mainly composed of the physical capital-intensive manufactures, resource-based manufactures, and human capital-intensive manufactures; while for the ASEAN4 they are mainly primary products, resource-based manufactures, and labor-intensive manufactures. Finally and most importantly, China's lately opening up and its fast-growing features have disturbed the formation of the Asian flying geese. Although some of China's rising industries can be identified as ASEAN4-followers, China also has many industries that have been rising before those of the ASEAN4s.

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