國防支出與國外武力威脅對生育率與經濟成長影響之分析

The Impact of Defense Spending and the Foreign Military Threat on the Fertility Rate and the Economic Growth Rate

10.6277/ter.2010.383.1

王韋能(Wei-Neng Wang)；陳智華(Jhy-Hwa Chen)；謝智源(Jhy-Yuan Shieh)

經濟成長 ； 國防支出 ； 國外武力威脅 ； 生育率 ； endogenous population ； defense military expenditure ； foreign threat ； economic growth

經濟論文叢刊

38卷3期（2010 / 09 / 01）

327 - 353

繁體中文

本文的焦點在於分析養育成本、軍事支出與國外武力威脅對於生育率和經濟成長率的影響。我們發現，養育成本的提高將會減緩生育率，但卻可以刺激經濟成長。另外，軍事支出對於生育率與經濟成長率的影響均不確定，其關鍵因素在於國防部門所產生的生產外部性之大小。值得注意的是，倘若不考慮國防部門的生產外部性之下，軍事支出仍可能透過內生化的生育率來刺激經濟成長。最後，在跨期替代彈性小於一之下，國外武力威脅將會傷害生育率，但卻有助於經濟成長表現。

This paper attempts to examine the effect of the rearing cost, defense expenditure and the foreign military threat on the fertility rate and the growth rate of the economy. In conformity with the viewpoint of Sandler and Hartley (1995), we observe the role of national defense on growth from the perspective of both the demand and the supply side. Within such a framework, we find that the rearing cost has a negative impact on the fertility rate, but it can enhance the growth rate. We also find an ambiguous relationship between military expenditure and economic growth, but military expenditure can increase the growth rate with defense sector production externalities are absent. Moreover, it is shown that the intertemporal elasticity plays an important role in determining the effect of a foreign military threat on economic growth.

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