民主轉型與儲蓄－投資相關係數：台灣的實證研究

Democratic Transition and the Saving-Investment Correlation: Evidence from Taiwan

10.6277/ter.2010.384.2

林向愷(Kenneth S. Lin)；岳俊豪(Chun-Hao Yueh)

民主轉型 ； 金融開放 ； 儲蓄與投資相關係數 ； DCC GARCH-X模型 ； democratic transition ； financial openness ； saving and investment correlation ； DCC GARCH-X model

經濟論文叢刊

38卷4期（2010 / 12 / 01）

461 - 500

繁體中文

本文將民主化與金融開放等變數導入DCC GARCH模型，探討台灣民主轉型對儲蓄與投資相關係數的影響。實證結果顯示：民主轉型對國民儲蓄率與國內投資率變異數有負向影響，金融開放對國民儲蓄率與國內投資率共變異數則有正向影響。台灣的實證現象雖能解答爲何已開發國家儲蓄與投資相關係數較開發中國家爲高，但金融開放影響儲蓄與投資共變異數的管道則有待進一步研究。

In this paper, we introduce a DCC GARCH-X model to study the impact of the democratic transition on the saving and investment correlation in Taiwan. We find that democratic transition lowers the correlation through decreasing variances of saving and investment, while financial openness raises it through increasing its covariance counterpart. Our empirical findings suggest that democratic transitions are crucial to explaining why the saving and investment correlation in developing countries is higher than that in developed countries.

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