题名

動態隨機一般均衡（DSGE）模型在貨幣政策制定上的應用：一個帶有批判性的回顧與展望

并列篇名

DSGE Models and Policy Making: A Critical Review

DOI

10.6277/ter.2012.403.1

作者

陳旭昇(Shiu-Sheng Chen)；湯茹茵(Ju-Yin Tang)

关键词

動態隨機一般均衡（DSGE）模型 ； 貨幣政策 ； 中央銀行 ； DGSE model ； monetary policy ； central bank

期刊名称

經濟論文叢刊

卷期/出版年月

40卷3期（2012 / 09 / 01）

页次

289 - 323

内容语文

繁體中文
中文摘要

近年來，動態隨機一般均衡（Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE）模型受到世界各國中央銀行重視與採用，據以做為貨幣政策分析以及經濟預測之工具。然而，美國於2007年第三季所爆發的次貸危機擴散到全球，進而造成世界各國陷入景氣衰退的陰影，使得DSGE模型因為無法預測甚至解釋這次危機，受到多方的責難。本文以一個批判的觀點來檢視DSGE模型在貨幣政策制定上的應用。首先我們回顧DSGE模型發展沿革以及該模型與貨幣政策制定之間的關係，並解釋何以DSGE模型會在近年來受到各國央行的青睞。接下來，我們討論DSGE有關模型設定與估計方法的最新發展，以及提供對於最新的DSGE模型的幾點批判，藉以說明為何DSGE模型依然不宜做為貨幣政策制訂的依據。最後，我們以DSGE模型未來發展願景做為結語。
英文摘要

This paper provides a critical review of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and policy making. After a brief discussion on historical developments in DSGE models, we focus on criticism of using DSGE models for monetary policy making. We also discuss how to improve DSGE modeling from the perspective of policy analysis.
主题分类 社會科學 > 經濟學
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被引用次数
  1. (2016)。建構台灣的混合頻率動態結構總體模型。中央銀行季刊，38(2)，3-32。
  2. (2022)。不同勞動市場摩擦下之動態隨機一般均衡模型的總體預測分析。中央銀行季刊，44(1)，29-66。
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