輸入性通貨膨脹與實質匯率動態

Imported Inflation and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics

10.6277/TER.2013.414.3

曹添旺(Tien-Wang Tsaur)；曹真睿(Jen-Ruey Tsaur)

輸入性通貨膨脹 ； 通貨替代 ； 匯率動態 ； 局部不確定性 ； imported inflation ； currency substitution ； exchange-rate dynamics ； locally indeterminacy

經濟論文叢刊

41卷4期（2013 / 12 / 01）

403 - 441

繁體中文

本文利用最終商品和中間要素的兩部門模型，探討進口商品及要素國際價格波動對小型開放經濟就業、所得及物價的影響；並考慮全球流行的貨幣保有多元化的現象，建構通貨替代模型，分析輸入通貨膨脹引發的實質匯率動態行為。研究發現：進口生產要素的國際價格波動對實質匯率和外國通貨實質餘額的長期效果取決於本國依賴進口中間要素的程度、進口最終商品消費佔支出的比例、通貨組合的需求彈性及商品貿易彈性等結構參數，而內生變數的動態行為也受這些參數影響。準此，一旦小型開放經濟面臨輸入性通貨膨脹衝擊，實質匯率（乃至就業、所得等相關變數）勢將發生持續而多樣的波動。本文的模型有助於詮釋晚近論著特別注意到實質匯率波動的猛烈性及持續性。

This paper examines the effect of imported inflation in a small open economy importing intermediate inputs for production purposes under a system of flexible exchange rates. The dynamic interactions between the real and monetary sides will also be analyzed. We develop a two-sector (the intermediate input sector and the final good sector) production model into the real side, and incorporate rational expectations and currency substitution into the monetary side. Based on this framework, the effects of the increase in foreign prices of both intermediate inputs and final goods on the domestic price, output, employment and real exchange rate dynamics will be studied. The trade elasticities, the cost elasticity of holding the currency mix, the average propensity to import out of expenditure, and the degree of dependence on imported intermediate inputs are crucial in influencing the steady-state and impact effects as well as dynamic adjustment paths. When the Marshall-Lerner condition holds, the adjustment of real exchange rates exhibits saddle-path stability. When the Marshall-Lerner condition fails, the adjustment of real exchange rates may exhibit indeterminacy.

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