RMB Revaluation and China's Trade: Does the RMB Have a Limited Effect on China's Surplus?

人民幣升值與中國的貿易：是否人民幣對中國貿易餘額影響效果有限？

10.6277/TER.201809_46(3).0001

彭喜樞(Shi-Shu Peng)；劉名寰(Ming-Huan Liou)；楊浩彥(Hao-Yen Yang)；楊志海(Chih-Hai Yang)

exchange rate elasticity ； trade surplus ； dynamic panel GMM ； 匯率彈性 ； 貿易餘額 ； 動態一般化動差模型

經濟論文叢刊

46卷3期（2018 / 09 / 01）

333 - 362

英文

This study examines the influence of the RMB fluctuations on trade in primary, intermediate, and final goods between China and its 49 major trading partners over the period 1992-2009. The empirical result shows that the sensitivity of trade to the exchange rate varies substantially for different commodities. Overall, China's exports are less sensitive to the exchange rate than imports. Counterintuitively, we find that RMB appreciation reduces China's intermediate goods imports. A possible reason is that the appreciation harms its final goods exports in the assembly sector, thus indirectly lowering the demand for the required intermediate goods imports. This finding, along with the finding that final goods exports, the major source of the trade surplus, are not sensitive to exchange rate changes, are probably the main reasons why RMB appreciation has a limited effect on restraining China's rising surplus.

本文探討人民幣匯率波動對中國的初級財貨，中間財與最終財貿易的影響。利用中國在1992年至2009年間與49個主要貿易對手國的貿易資料進行研究，實證結果發現不同財貨的貿易對於匯率變動的敏感度具顯著差異。整體而言，中國出口的匯率敏感度較進口為低。本文發現人民升值反而降低了中間財的進口，可能導因於人民幣升值降低最終財的組裝產品出口，間接使得所需進口的中間財減少。由於最終財出口為中國貿易餘額的最大來源，但其對於匯率變動的敏感度較低，致使人民幣升值對於抑制中國貿易餘額攀升的效果相當有限。

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