台灣匯率貶值政策之探討

Exchange Rate Undervaluation Policy in Taiwan

10.6277/TER.201903_47(1).0002

陳旭昇(Shiu-Sheng Chen)

中央銀行 ； 匯率貶值政策 ； central bank ； exchange rate undervaluation policy

經濟論文叢刊

47卷1期（2019 / 03 / 01）

41 - 74

繁體中文

本文檢視台灣中央銀行自1998－2010年間的匯率貶值政策，目的在於釐清台灣央行是否執行匯率貶值政策，並進一步檢討匯率貶值政策與經濟成長，產業發展，利率政策，房屋價格以及財政收支結構之關係。整體而言，我們說明了台灣央行自1998－2010年間的匯率貶值政策對於台灣經濟可能造成諸多的負面影響。我們建議，央行的貨幣政策必須改弦易張，揚棄匯率貶值政策，並且應減少外匯市場干預與增加匯率政策的透明度與可究責性。

This paper investigates the exchange rate undervaluation policy in Taiwan since 1998. We examine how currency undervaluation affects economic growth, industrial upgrading, monetary policy, house prices, and fiscal structure. Overall, we argue that the undervaluation policy adopted by the Central Bank of Taiwan has several negative impacts on Taiwan's economy. It is suggested that the Central Bank of Taiwan should discard the undervaluation policy. The authorities should move towards a more fully market-determined exchange rate, reduce foreign exchange interventions, and increase the transparency and accountability of exchange rate policy.

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