新台幣匯率與貿易條件惡化

Terms of Trade Deterioration and Exchange Rates: The Case of Taiwan

10.6277/TER.202203_50(1).0002

陳旭昇(Shiu-Sheng Chen)

新台幣匯率貶值 ； 貿易條件惡化 ； exchange rate depreciation ； terms of trade

經濟論文叢刊

50卷1期（2022 / 03 / 01）

51 - 85

繁體中文

台灣的貿易條件自1998年開始逐步惡化，一般咸認，國際原物料價格上漲與資訊科技產品價格下跌為台灣貿易條件惡化之主因。本研究透過結構性自我向量迴歸模型發現，除了上述原因之外，新台幣匯率貶值亦會造成台灣貿易條件惡化。此外，根據變異數分解可知，匯率衝擊具有長期的解釋力。最後，透過歷史分解，匯率衝擊的累積效果對於台灣貿易條件之變化，在其惡化期間（1998-2012）的平均解釋力高於原物料價格衝擊。因此，給定新台幣匯率在2000-2010年有一長期貶值趨勢，對於台灣貿易條件於2000-2012年的惡化，新台幣匯率難謂毫無干係。

Since 1998, Taiwan has been associated with a long-run terms of trade deterioration. This study explores potential explanations for such a long-run decline. Using monthly data from 1998:M1 to 2019:M6, we find strong evidence that one of the main causes of the deteriorating terms of trade is due to persistent currency depreciation in Taiwan.

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