房價上漲與資源誤置

Taiwan's House Price Booms and Resource Misallocation

10.6277/TER.202407_52(3).0002

張天惠(Tien-Huei Chang)；朱浩榜(Hao-Pang Chu)；陳南光(Nan-Kuang Chen)

房價 ； 資源誤置 ； 工具變數 ； house price ； resource misallocation ； instrumental variable

經濟論文叢刊

52卷3期（2024 / 07 / 01）

271 - 307

繁體中文;英文

本文使用台灣的資料探討房價變動如何影響不同產業與整體經濟的產出、投資、就業人數及總要素生產力（TFP）等總體經濟變數。實證結果顯示，房價大漲時，營建工程業的產出與TFP未明顯上升，但卻使全體與製造業之產出成長顯著下降，而且製造業TFP成長率亦顯著下降。若進一步考量房價上漲衝擊的長期累積效果，房價上漲有助帶動營建工程業之產出、投資及就業人數長期上升；然而，房價上漲卻對製造業有排擠效果，因而使製造業之產出、投資，以及技術進步均有顯著且負向的長期影響。因此，房價持續上漲將資本與勞動力引導至房地產相關產業，排擠其他重要產業可能獲取的資源，這資源誤置效應會拖累整體經濟成長、投資與生產力。

This paper uses Taiwan's data to investigate how changes in house prices affect output, investment, employment, and total factor productivity (TFP). The results indicate that stronger increases in house prices does not correspond to a significant rise in output and TFP in the construction sector; moreover, the aggregate and manufacturing output growth and the manufacturing TFP growth shrink significantly. In the light of cumulative effects, house price booms promote the construction sector's output, investment, and employment in the long term. However, a persistent increase in house prices reallocates capital and labor across sectors, with a crowding out effect on the manufacturing sector, so that the manufacturing output, investment, and TFP significantly diminish in the long run.