住宅自有率對生育率之長短期影響－追蹤資料共整合分析應用

Long- and Short-Term Influences of Homeownership Rates on Fertility Rates: An Application of the Panel Cointegration Model

10.6191/jps.2012.2

彭建文(Chien-Wen Peng)；蔡怡純(I-Chun Tsai)

生育率 ； 住宅自有率 ； 追蹤資料 ； 共整合分析 ； fertility rate ； homeownership rate ； panel data ； cointegration test

人口學刊

44期（2012 / 06 / 01）

57 - 86

繁體中文

在臺灣生育率持續下降的同時，住宅自有率卻呈現長期上升的趨勢，到底家戶的生育決策與購屋決策是否有關聯？或僅是時間數列上的巧合？本文發現生育率與住宅自有率、家戶可支配所得、有偶率、女性高等教育比率之間具有共整合的長期均衡關係，其中住宅自有率、家戶所得、有偶率在長期對生育率有正向影響，而女性高等教育比率在長期則對生育率有負向影響。生育率的短期變化除具有顯著的負向自我相關外，最為相關的因子就是家戶所得與女性高等教育比率，生育率與前一年和前兩年的所得都為正向相關，與前一年和前兩年的女性高等教育比率則為負向相關，但生育率與住宅自有率的短期關係不顯著，可能是因為住宅自有率對生育率的正負向關係相互抵銷所造成。

Taiwan's fertility rates have decreased over the past three decades, making it one of the lowest-low fertility countries in the world. However, its homeownership rates exhibited an opposite trend, increasing during the same period. Are these two time series trends related or merely coincidental? Our empirical results reveal that fertility rates are co-integrated with homeownership rates, household income, proportion of married couples, and percentage of higher educated females, which means there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship among these variables. In the short-term, in addition to a significant negative autocorrelation, fertility rates were mostly affected by lagging household income and the percentage of more highly educated females, but the influence of lagging homeownership rates was not significant.

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