Systematic Correlations between Demographic Transition and Epidemiologic Transition

人口轉型與疾病轉型系統性的相關聯

10.6191/JPS.2014.48.03

陳正和(Jeng-Her Chen)

人口健康有利條件 ； 人口轉型 ； 疾病轉型 ； favorable conditions for population health ； demographic transition ； epidemiologic transition

人口學刊

48期（2014 / 07 / 01）

95 - 139

英文

目的：有鑒於目前理論與經驗研究在探討人口轉型與疾病轉型系統性相關聯的不足，本研究以人口轉型理論提出人口轉型所帶來的人口健康有利條件如何在理論上與研究上解釋疾病轉型。方法：運用OLS迴歸分析與交叉表列方法，針對開發中國家可得資料進行跨國資料分析。發現：以全球生育與文化轉型所量度的人口轉型不僅影響人口健康有利條件的發生，二者並同時帶動疾病轉型有系統性的循序進展，從傳染性疾病轉型為非傳染性疾病，以及從傳染性疾病轉型為傷害為主的死亡成因。結論：本研究有助於理論發展與跨學科研究連結人口學與流行病學，結論並討論理論、研究，與政策上的涵義及對未來研究的具體建議。

Objective: Because of the insufficiencies of the current theoretical and empirical endeavors for explaining the systematic relationship between demographic transition and epidemiologic transition, this study is an attempt to theorize and empirically test a demographic transition thesis for explaining favorable conditions for population health and subsequent epidemiologic transition outcomes in less developed countries. Methods: OLS regression and cross-tabulation methods were used to conduct a cross-national analysis of all available data from less developed countries. Findings: Demographic transition, as measured by global fertility and cultural transition, exerts robust positive effects on the index of favorable conditions for population health and subsequent epidemiologic transition outcomes regarding the communicable- to non-communicable diseases transition and communicable diseases- to- injuries transition. Conclusions: Theorizing and testing a demographic transition thesis of epidemiologic transition contributed to theory development and interdisciplinary research for bridging demography and epidemiology.Theory, research, policy implications and suggestions for future research were discussed.

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