臺灣青壯年人口的居住轉換序列分析

A Sequence Analysis of Taiwanese Adults' Housing Transitions

10.6191/JPS.201906_58.0002

張詠菡(Yung-Han Chang)

居住轉換 ； 序列分析 ； 房屋所有 ； 家戶組成 ； housing transition ； sequence analysis ； homeownership ； household composition

人口學刊

58期（2019 / 06 / 01）

39 - 87

繁體中文

居住選擇涉及成年生活的多重層面，而隨著社會變遷，成年人的發展歷程漸偏離傳統路徑，但過往臺灣少有研究從動態視角追蹤檢視青壯年人口的居住轉換。部分研究雖觸及居住安排及房屋所有權的轉變，但研究的對象年齡限於26歲以下或是35歲以上，較少涵蓋30歲前後的居住變化。本研究使用華人家庭動態資料庫，以年齡介於27-39歲之2003年主樣本為研究對象，採用序列分析，追蹤2003至2016年間，三世代樣本（1964-1967、1968-1972、1973-1976）的居住轉換。研究發現不同世代樣本的居住轉換路徑分歧，其中1973-1976世代出現留巢及離巢後返回之路徑軌跡；另一方面，該世代樣本在30歲左右時，在家戶組成及居所類別上皆出現變化，意味著即使三十而立不一定能達到，30歲在居住轉換上仍具有指標意義。

Housing choices are related to multiple aspects of adult life. Whereas young adults' transition to full adulthood has gradually deviated from the traditional track along with social changes, the dynamics of housing transition have rarely been investigated in Taiwan. Although some studies examined the changes of living arrangements and housing tenure of the population aged under 26 or above 35, not many studies looked into the housing changes of those aged around 30. This study used data from the Panel Study of Family Dynamics and adopted the main respondents (ages 27-39) interviewed since 2003 as the sample. By dividing the sample into three cohorts (1964-1967, 1968-1972, 1973-1976), the analysis of housing transitions between 2003 and 2016 was conducted with sequence analysis. Research results showed that there were distinct differences in housing trajectories among different cohorts. Trajectories of staying at or returning to the parental home after leaving were found among the 1973-1976 cohort. Moreover, based on analysis of the long-term trajectories, changes of household composition and housing tenure tended to surge around age 30. This finding implies that age 30 is still the critical age of housing transitions, even though ＂independence at the age of thirty＂ may be hard to achieve.

1. 于若蓉, Ruoh-Rong,黃奕嘉, I-Chia(2018)。家庭動態調查：樣本結構、問卷內容、資料外釋與應用。中國統計學報，56(4)，98-115。
   連結：
2. 王俊豪, Jiun-Hao(2008)。臺灣初婚夫妻的居住安排。人口學刊，37，45-85。
   連結：
3. 王德睦, Te-Mu,張國偉, Kuo-Wei(2010)。臺灣女性初婚率的量與步調。臺灣社會福利學刊，8(2)，241-278。
   連結：
4. 張詠菡, Yung-Han(2018)。影響臺灣青年人口居住型態之價值觀因素。住宅學報，27(2)，1-37。
   連結：
5. 陳佳欣, Chia-Hsin,張曜麟, Yao-Lin,歐陽宇, Yu(2010)。臺灣地區各世代已婚家戶由租屋至擁屋之影響因素。嘉南學報（人文類），36，672-684。
   連結：
6. 魯慧中, Huei-Chung,鄭保志, P. C. Roger(2012)。孝道的認同與實踐：以「成年兒子與父母同住決策」為分析對象。人口學刊，45，111-154。
   連結：
7. Abbott, A.(2001).Time Matters: On Theory and Method.Chicago:University of Chicago Press.
8. Abbott, A.(1995).Sequence Analysis: New Methods for Old Ideas.Annual Review of Sociology,21(1),93-113.
9. Abbott, A.,DeViney, S.(1992).The Welfare State as Transitional Event: Evidence from Sequences of Policy Adoption.Social Science History,16(2),245-274.
10. Abbott, A.,Forrest, J.(1986).Optimal Matching Methods for Historical Sequences.The Journal of Interdisciplinary History,16(3),471-494.
11. Abbott, A.,Hrycak, A.(1990).Measuring Resemblance in Sequence Data: An Optimal Matching Analysis of Musicians’ Careers.American Journal of Sociology,96(1),144-185.
12. Abbott, A.,Tsay, A.(2000).Sequence Analysis and Optimal Matching Methods in Sociology: Review and Prospect.Sociological Methods & Research,29(1),3-33.
13. Angelini, V.,Laferrère, A.(2013).Parental Altruism and Nest Leaving in Europe: Evidence from a Retrospective Survey.Review of Economics of the Household,11(3),393-420.
14. Berrington, A.,Stone, J.(2013).Outlining a Future Research Agenda for Studies of Young Adults’ Transitions to Residential Independence.Centre for Population Change Working Paper,38
15. Blair-Loy, M.(1999).Career Patterns of Executive Women in Finance: An Optimal Matching Analysis.American Journal of Sociology,104(5),1346-1397.
16. Calvert, E.(2010).Young People's Housing Transitions in Context.ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper,8
17. Chang, Y.-H.(2015).Childcare Needs and Household Composition: Is household Extension a Way of Seeking Childcare Support?.Chinese Sociological Review,47,343-366.
18. Clapham, D.,Mackie, P.,Orford, S.,Thomas, I.,Buckley, K.(2014).The Housing Pathways of Young People in the UK.Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space,46(8),2016-2031.
19. Côté, J.,Bynner, J. M.(2008).Changes in the Transition to Adulthood in the UK and Canada: The Role of Structure and Agency in Emerging Adulthood.Journal of Youth Studies,11(3),251-268.
20. de Amorim, R. C.,Hennig, C.(2015).Recovering the Number of Clusters in Data Sets with Noise Features Using Feature Rescaling Factors.Information Sciences,324,126-145.
21. Dhillon, N.,Yousef, T.(2009).Generation in Waiting: The Unfulfilled Promise of Young People in the Middle East.Washington, DC:Brookings Institution Press.
22. Ford, J.,Rugg, J.,Burrows, R.(2002).Conceptualising the Contemporary Role of Housing in the Transition to Adult Life in England.Urban Studies,39(13),2455-2467.
23. Fry, R. 2016. “For First Time in Modern Era, Living with Parents Edges Out Other Living Arrangements for 18- to 34-Year-Olds.” In Pew Research Center. http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/05/24/for-first-time-in-modern-era-living-with-parents-edges-out-other-living-arrangements-for-18-to-34-year-olds (Date visited: March 23, 2019).
24. Fukuda, S.(2009).Leaving the Parental Home in Post-War Japan: Demographic Changes, Stem-Family Norms and the Transition to Adulthood.Demographic Research,20,731-816.
25. Furlong, A.,Cartmel, F.(2007).Young People and Social Change: New Perspectives.New York:Open University Press.
26. Halpin, B.(2017).SADI: Sequence Analysis Tools for Stata.The Stata Journal: Promoting Communications on Statistics and Stata,17(3),546-572.
27. Heath, S.(2008).Housing Choices and Issues for Young People in the UK.
28. Holdsworth, C.,Morgan, D.(2005).Transitions in Context: Leaving Home, Independence and Adulthood.New York:Open University Press.
29. Honwana, A.(2014).‘Waithood’: Youth Transitions and Social Change.Development and Equity: An Interdisciplinary Exploration by Ten Scholars from Africa, Asia and Latin America,Leiden:
30. Huang, L.-W.(2012).When Young Adults Leave Home: Dependency or Autonomy?.The Psychological Well-Being of East Asian Youth,Dordrecht:
31. Huang, L.-W.(2013).The Transition Tempo and Life Course Orientation of Young Adults in Taiwan.The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science,646(1),69-85.
32. Iacovou, M.(2010).Leaving Home: Independence, Togetherness and Income.Advances in Life Course Research,15(4),147-160.
33. Jones, G.(1995).Leaving Home.Buckingham:Open University Press.
34. Liefbroer, A. C.,Billari, F. C.(2010).Bringing Norms Back in: A Theoretical and Empirical Discussion of Their Importance for Understanding Demographic Behaviour.Population, Space and Place,16(4),287-305.
35. Mitchell, B. A.(2006).The Boomerang Age from Childhood to Adulthood: Emergent Trends and Issues for Aging Families.Canadian Studies in Population,33(2),155-178.
36. Modena, F.,Rondinelli, C.(2011).Bank of Italy Temi di Discussione Working PaperBank of Italy Temi di Discussione Working Paper,未出版
37. Moreno, A.(2012).The Transition to Adulthood in Spain in a Comparative Perspective: The Incidence of Structural Factors.Young,20(1),19-48.
38. Mulder, C. H.,Clark, W. A. V.,Wagner, M.(2002).A Comparative Analysis of Leaving Home in the United States, the Netherlands and West Germany.Demographic Research,7(17),565-592.
39. Ng, Y.-L.(2012).Cardiff School of Social Sciences, Cardiff University.
40. Piccarreta, R.,Studer, M.(2019).Holistic Analysis of the Life Course: Methodological Challenges and New Perspectives.Advances in Life Course Research,41,100251.
41. Quah, S. R.(ed.)(2015).Routledge Handbook of Families in Asia.New York:Routledge.
42. Rousseeuw, P. J.(1987).Silhouettes: A Graphical Aid to the Interpretation and Validation of Cluster Analysis.Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics,20,53-65.
43. Settersten, R. A.(1998).A Time to Leave Home and a Time Never to Return? Age Constraints on the Living Arrangements of Young Adults.Social Forces,76(4),1373-1400.
44. Settersten, R. A.,Hägestad, G. O.(1996).What's the Latest? Cultural Age Deadlines for Family Transitions.The Gerontologist,36(2),178-188.
45. Singerman, D.(2007).Middle East Youth Initiative Working PaperMiddle East Youth Initiative Working Paper,未出版
46. Stone, J.,Berrington, A.,Falkingham, J.(2011).The Changing Determinants of UK Young Adults’ Living Arrangements.Demographic Research,25,629-666.
47. Stovel, K.,Savage, M.,Bearman, P.(1996).Ascription into Achievement: Models of Career Systems at Lloyds Bank, 1890-1970.American Journal of Sociology,102(2),358-399.
48. Xenos, P.,Achmad, S.,Lin, H. S.,Luis, P. K.,Podhisita, C.,Raymundo, C.,Thapa, S.(2006).Delayed Asian Transitions to Adulthood: A Perspective from National Youth Surveys.Asian Population Studies,2(2),149-185.
49. Yeung, W.-J. J.,Alipio, C.(2013).Transitioning to Adulthood in Asia: School, Work, and Family Life.The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science,646(1),6-27.
50. Yi, Z.,Coale, A.,Choe, M. K.,Zhiwu, L.,Li, L.(1994).Leaving the Parental Home: Census-Based Estimates for China, Japan, South Korea, United States, France, and Sweden.Population Studies,48(1),65-80.
51. 內政部 [Ministry of the Interior]（n.d.）全臺房價所得比。https://pip.moi.gov.tw/V2/E/SCRE0201.aspx（取用日期：2019年5月27日）。“Taiwan's House-Price-to-Income-Ratio.” (Date visited: May 27, 2019).
52. 內政部戶政司 [Department of Household Registration, Ministry of the Interior]（n.d.）人口統計資料。https://www.ris.gov.tw/app/portal/346（取用日期：2019年5月27日）。“Population Statistics.” (Date visited: May 27, 2019).
53. 王惠芝, Hui-Chih(2011)。國立臺灣師範大學人類發展與家庭學研究所=Department of Human Development and Family Studies, National Taiwan Normal University。
54. 行政院主計總處 [Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan]（2019）國民所得統計摘要（108年8月更新）。https://www.dgbas.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=33338&ctNode=3099&mp=1（取用日期：2019年8月5日）。“Statistical Abstract of National Income (Last Update: 2019 August).” (Date visited: August 5, 2019).
55. 李雲婷, Yun-Ting(2003)。國立成功大學都市計劃研究所=Department of Urban Planning, National Cheng Kung University。
56. 林谷蘭, Gu-Lan(2003)。國立政治大學地政研究所=Department of Land Economics, National Chengchi University。
57. 胡克強、宋卉凌 [Hu, Ke-Qiang and Hui-Ling Song]（2016）「我早就放棄買房」臺北街頭廣告說中小市民心聲。https://www.setn.com/News.aspx?NewsID=154074（取用日期：2017年12月1日）。“Wo Zao Jiu Fang Qi Mai Fang Tai Bei Jie Tou Guang Gao Shuo Zhong Xiao Shi Min Xin Sheng.” (Date visited: December 1, 2017).
58. 黃靖容, Jing-Rong(2011)。國立政治大學財政研究所=Department of Public Finance, National Chengchi University。
59. 楊靜利, Ching-Li,陳寬政, Kuan-Jeng,李大正, Tai-Cheng(2012)。近二十年來的家庭結構變遷。臺灣的社會變遷1985 ~ 2005：家庭與婚姻，臺北=Taipei:
60. 聯合新聞網 [udn]（2015）七年級生誰靠自己買房？網友諷：連塔位都買不起。http://house.udn.com/house/story/5887/899240（取用日期：2016年7月5日）。“Qi Nian Ji Sheng Shei Kao Zi Ji Mai Fang? Wang You Feng: Lian Ta Wei Du Mai Bu Qi.” (Date visited: July 5, 2016).