Study of the Time-Spatial Influence of Urban Growth Boundary Strategy on Urban Land Development Patterns

都市成長界線策略對土地發展型態之時空影響分析

10.6404/JP.200901.0043

鄒克萬(Ko-Wan Tsou)；吳綱立(Kang-Li Wu)

都市成長界線 ； 土地使用管制 ； 都市模擬 ； 細胞自動機 ； 環境影響評估 ； Urban Growth Boundary ； Land Use Control ； Urban Simulation ； Cellular Automata ； Environmental Impact Assessment

規劃學報

35期（2009 / 01 / 01）

43 - 64

英文

近年來，成長管理被認為是邁向永續都市發展的一個重要土地管理工具，於現有的成長管理策略中，都市成長界線被許多城市加以應用，藉以減緩都市蔓延和降低土地的失序發展。雖然部分的理論認為成長界線策略能夠降低都市蔓延的問題，但是其如何影響土地的發展型態之相關研究仍然十分有限。因此，本文之目的在於發展一個以細胞自動機為基礎的空間模擬和分析架構。研究中以台南市進行實證研究，分別模擬和比較都市成長界線劃設和趨勢發展兩個發展情境方案。分析結果顯示，都市成長界線能夠減緩都市蔓延和降低對環境敏感地區的衝擊，研究結果有助於都市管理者修正或研擬相關管理策略和發展計畫。

In recent years, growth management has been considered an important land management tool to promote sustainable urban development. Among current strategies of growth management, the strategy of urban growth boundary has been applied to several cities in order to mitigate urban sprawl and reduce uncontrolled land development. Although some theories have advocated that the growth boundary strategy may reduce the problem of urban sprawl, relatively few studies have explicitly addressed how this kind of planning control will affect land development patterns. Nor do previous studies explicitly identify the potential impact of growth boundary policy on urban land use change in Taiwan. In view of this, the study attempts to develop a research framework and conduct a spatial simulation analysis based on the Cellular Automata (CA) modeling technique. Employing Tainan City as an empirical case setting, this study simulates and compares the spatial influence of the proposed growth boundary strategy by the city government on the development patterns of urban land under two scenarios: current development trend (the zero-action plan) and the development plan employing urban growth boundary strategy. The empirical result shows that the urban growth boundary measures can slow down the urban sprawl and reduce the land development in and around environmental sensitive areas and important farmland. The results also reveal that the urban growth boundary policy will alter land development patterns and the spatial distribution of the new development land parcels. This will require urban planners and decision makers develop suitable land management strategies and land-use control tools to manage the influence of urban growth boundary measures. In such a way, the urban growth boundary plan and strategy will be a useful tool that promote sustainable land use planning and management.

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