台灣製造業廠商排名流動性的研究

A Study on Rank Mobility of Taiwan Manufacturing Firms

10.6277/ter.2003.313.3

陳忠榮(Jong-Rong Chen)；呂文正(Wen-Cheng Lu)

產業流動性 ； 馬可夫鍵 ； 吉伯特法則 ； Industrial mobility ； Markov chain ； Gibrat's law

經濟論文叢刊

31卷3期（2003 / 09 / 01）

365 - 380

繁體中文

本文以台灣500大企業為研究對象，並從中區分成33個產業，以每個產業內廠商排名替換機率作為衡量產業流動性的基礎。我們考慮馬可夫鏈(Markov Chain)、吉伯特法則(Gibrat's Law)與本文所提供的排名上升、不變與下降的三狀態的馬可夫鏈，作為實際上廠商排名替換的比較基礎。分析的結果指出，三個狀態的馬可夫鏈較為接近實際的移轉機率。由流動性指標顯示，吉伯特法則所估計出的流動性最高。此外，Geroski and Toker(1996)的方式並不適用於台灣中小企業為主的產業結構，計算流動性時，若僅考慮每一產業前5名的廠商，將高估產業的僵固性。

This paper studies the top 500 Taiwan firms manufacturing and divides them into 33 industries. We use the probability of the turnover in the firm's ranking in each industry as the basis of measuring industry mobility. We consider the Markov chain, Gibrat's law and three states Markov chain proposed by this study as the comparison basis for the turnover of firms' ranking. Analytical results indicate that the three-states Markov chain has the transition probability that is closest to the true ranking probability. It can be shown that the mobility the techniques of estimated by Gibrat's law is the highest mobility indicator. In addition, Geroski and Toker (1996) are not suitable for studying Taiwan's industry mobility. By only considering top 5 firms in a given industry, they overestimate industry rigidity.

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