题名

馬來西亞柔佛麻坡降雨事件時間序列分析及預測模式

并列篇名

Time Series Analysis and Forecast Models for Rainfall in Muar, Johor

DOI

10.6234/JGR.2011.54.01

作者

黃燕儀(Yi-Ng Yuen)

关键词

傅立葉轉換 ; 時間序列 ; 自迴歸整合移動平均模式 ; 預測 ; Fast Fourier Transform ; Time series ; ARIMA ; Forecast

期刊名称

地理研究

卷期/出版年月

54期(2011 / 05 / 01)

页次

1 - 17

内容语文

繁體中文

中文摘要

本研究使用1951年至2007年APHRODITE(Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources)0.25° X 0.25°高解析度日降雨網格資料,並將之劃分為年、月和季三組降雨資料分析馬來西亞柔佛州地區的長期降雨趨勢和進行預測。研究結果顯示,麻坡地區的年降雨近年來有上升的趨勢,經傅立葉轉換(Fast Fourier Transform, FFT)結果顯示,此區的降雨週期訊號以4年、2-3年和每年的週期循環為主,此規律循環可推測為TBO(Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation)和ENSO(El-Nino Southern Oscillation)事件的影響,近年來麻坡地區降雨對ENSO事件的訊號越趨明顯。此外,冬季降雨在1998年前後出現明顯的上升趨勢,推估為近年冬季季風的增強,加速了熱帶地區的大氣擾動。根據此區的降雨變率分析,冬季在11和12月的氣象災害以水災為主,而春季在2月則需留意高溫乾旱的天氣現象。本研究採用ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)時間序列模式進行降雨預測,預測結果顯示有忽略極端值的存在。

英文摘要

This study was carried out using the APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources) 0.25° X 0.25° high resolution daily rainfall grid data from 1951-2007. All data set were divided into annual, monthly, and seasonal rainfall data to analyze the long-term rainfall trend and rainfall forecast in Muar. The results showed that there was an increasing trend in annual rainfall recently. The signals of 4 year, 2-3year, and annual cycles were found in Muar rainfall cycles through Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). Based on the above mentioned data, this rainfall pattern was suggested to be contributed by the TBO (Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation) and more significantly, by the ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation) events. Furthermore, the rainfall in the winter has been increasing since 1998. It implicated an intensified East Asian winter monsoon that led to an accelerated perturbation in the tropical region. According to the analyzed relationships between the rainfall variability and meteorological disaster, floods were the major concern in November and December, while drought was the prime woe in February. ARIMA time series model was used to forecast the annual rainfall in Muar. Nevertheless, it has a shortcoming of overlooking the extreme rainfall data.

主题分类 人文學 > 地理及區域研究
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