英文摘要
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This study was carried out using the APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources) 0.25° X 0.25° high resolution daily rainfall grid data from 1951-2007. All data set were divided into annual, monthly, and seasonal rainfall data to analyze the long-term rainfall trend and rainfall forecast in Muar. The results showed that there was an increasing trend in annual rainfall recently. The signals of 4 year, 2-3year, and annual cycles were found in Muar rainfall cycles through Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). Based on the above mentioned data, this rainfall pattern was suggested to be contributed by the TBO (Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation) and more significantly, by the ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation) events. Furthermore, the rainfall in the winter has been increasing since 1998. It implicated an intensified East Asian winter monsoon that led to an accelerated perturbation in the tropical region. According to the analyzed relationships between the rainfall variability and meteorological disaster, floods were the major concern in November and December, while drought was the prime woe in February. ARIMA time series model was used to forecast the annual rainfall in Muar. Nevertheless, it has a shortcoming of overlooking the extreme rainfall data.
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