American Voter Responses to International Political Events and Economic Conditions: 1920-1996

美國政治事件及國內經濟之選舉效應：1920-1996的美國總統選舉研究

蔡佳泓(Chia-Hung Tsai)

presidential election ； economic voting ； inter-national political events ； war ； 總統選舉 ； 經濟投票 ； 國際政治事件 ； 戰爭

歐美研究

30卷3期（2000 / 09 / 01）

143 - 191

英文

Conventional wisdom states that peace and prosperity are the principal policy goals for every government. Past studies have been successful in explaining the variances in presidential election results by using real change in economic conditions as the explanatory variable. The main purpose of this article, therefore, is to add two new variables, international events and wars, to the research on economic voting. It will be shown that international political events, war, and economic conditions explain well the variations in electoral outcomes from 1920 to 1996, and that they yield good predictions of electoral results. It is concluded that American voters in aggregate favor a government that provides peace as well as prosperity.

過去美國總統選舉的研究指出一般的選民關心經濟情況的好壞，因此經濟指標可以用來解釋總統選舉的結果，然而美國總統作為全國的領袖不僅承擔內政的施政責任，還在外交政策上有較國會更大的發揮空間與權力。因此本文將戰爭以及國際政治事件作為自變數，與經濟指標共同預測現任總統所屬政黨的得票率，研究發現這三個指標所構成的模型可以解釋百分之七十以上的變異量。本文證實在經濟情況良好、沒有戰爭而且在選舉年有國際政治事件發生的情況下，現任總統或其繼任者將獲得較高的得票率。

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