應用克利金／土地利用迴歸混合模式推估林園臨海石化工業區懸浮微粒之時空分布

Estimate Particulate Matter Concentrations Variations in a Petrochemical Parks Area Using a Hybrid Kriging/Land-Use Regression Model

10.6574/JPRS.202003_25(1).0002

吳昭儀(Jhao-Yi Wu)；吳治達(Chih-Da Wu)；陳裕政(Yu-Cheng Chen)；許金玉(Chin-Yu Hsu)；陳穆貞(Mu-Jean Chen)

懸浮微粒 ； 克利金／土地利用迴歸混合模式 ； 石化工業區 ； Particulate Matter ； Hybrid Kriging /Land-Use Regression Model ； Petrochemical Industrial Area

航測及遙測學刊

25卷1期（2020 / 03 / 01）

11 - 23

繁體中文

石化工業為一大型污染來源，了解石化工業區周遭污染濃度之時空變化有其必要性。本研究以林園臨海工業區之懸浮微粒污染為研究標的，藉由傳統土地利用迴歸與克利金／土地利用迴歸混合模式進行建模。其中傳統土地利用迴歸模式R^2、ADJ-R^2和RMSE分別為0.89、0.89以及7.29μg/m^3，交叉驗證結果R^2、ADJ-R^2和RMSE分別為0.83、0.83及9.02μg/m^3；而克利金／土地利用迴歸混合模式建立之結果，模式R^2、ADJ-R^2和RMSE分別為0.95、0.95以及5.2μg/m^3，交叉驗證結果R^2、ADJ-R^2和RMSE分別為0.94、0.94及5.41μg/m^3。相較之下，混合模式提升了約6%的解釋能力，其表現優於傳統模式。由所建之混合式模型推估林園臨海工業區PM_(10)濃度之時空分布發現，由空間部分觀察到住宅區、水稻田及製造業區域其PM_(10)濃度較高；時間部分則為2015-2017年濃度漸高，到了2018年呈下降趨勢。

The petrochemical industry is a major contributor to air pollution emissions, so determining the variations of these pollutants in the petrochemical industrial area is needed to reduce health risks due to PM_(10) exposures. In this study, a specific industrial monitoring database was used to collect PM_(10) data from May 2015 to September 2018 in Kaohsiung Petrochemical Parks area (including Linyuan Industrial Park and Linhai Industrial Park), Taiwan. Conventional land use regression and hybrid kriging approach which consider both the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of air pollutants was then conducted to develop the prediction model for estimating the spatial-temporal variability of PM_(10) concentrations. The resultant models showed a high-estimate performance level with the value of R^2, Adjusted R^2, RMSE and cross-validation for conventional approach was 0.89, 0.89, 7.29 μg/m^3 and 0.83, 0.83, 9.0 μg/m^3, respectively; and for hybrid approach was 0.95, 0.95, 5.2 μg/m^3 and 0.94, 0.94, 5.41 μg/m^3, respectively. The hybrid approach showed better explanatory power than conventional approach. Moreover, the results of hybrid model simulation showed that the highest concentrations of PM_(10) formed in the pure residential area, the manufacturing areas and agricultural fields; a similar decreasing trend was observed as well.

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